How Matthew Stafford Locked Up the 2025 NFL MVP

Unlike some other teams around the NFL, the Los Angeles Rams didn't rest their starters in Week 18. They had too much to play for. Head Coach Sean McVay benched his key players in the regular-season finale in both 2023 and 2024, but this year was different. The Rams needed to beat the Arizona Cardinals, and they did so convincingly, 37-20.

That victory gave them the No. 5 seed in the NFC and a first-round matchup with the 8-9 Carolina Panthers instead of a daunting bout with either the Chicago Bears or the Philadelphia Eagles on the road. They also just needed to get back into the win column before the postseason began, after losing their previous two going into Week 18. Getting Matthew Stafford a handful of additional touchdowns for his MVP case didn't hurt, either.

Los Angeles Rams, NFL, Arizona Cardinals, Matthew Stafford — Jan 4, 2026; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) throws downfield against the Arizona Cardinals during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Is the 2025 NFL MVP a closed case?

Matthew Stafford had the lead for the 2025 NFL MVP award for the majority of the season. Then, he ran into the Seattle Seahawks and the Atlanta Falcons. While he played well in Seattle, he couldn't get a win for his Los Angeles Rams. Against the Falcons, he didn't play so well. LA lost its second straight game for the first time this year, 27-24. Stafford finished with 269 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions on 22-of-38 passing.

The day before, Drake Maye led his New England Patriots over the New York Jets, 42-10, with 278 total yards, 19-of-21 passing, and five touchdowns in two-and-a-half quarters of football. That commanding performance gave him the lead over Stafford in the MVP odds. Going into Week 18, FanDuel had Maye as an overwhelming favorite, at -350, while the Rams' quarterback had fallen to +280.

Stafford plays bad
Maye plays well

Maye’s MVP odds rise drastically (understandable)

Stafford plays well
Maye plays well

Stafford’s MVP odds rise drastically, race declared “over” (not understandable)
— Theo Ash (@TheoAshNFL) January 5, 2026

Stafford came back with a vengeance in the finale versus the Arizona Cardinals, though. He went for 259 yards and four touchdowns. Maye didn't have to do much for his Pats in Week 18, who beat the Miami Dolphins 38-10 with four rushing touchdowns combined from TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson. Maye had a modest 191 yards and one score on 14-of-18 passing, and it might have cost him the MVP.

Following the conclusion of the 2025 NFL regular season, all voters must submit their ballots the next day. It seems like Stafford might have locked up the MVP award with his finale. He's now -165 on FanDuel, while Maye took a meteoric fall to +135. Of course, these odds are simply a reflection of the betting markets, but time will tell if they prove prescient.

Awards odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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