Rams’ Dominant Performance Without Puka Nacua Raises a $40 Million Question

The Los Angeles Rams are going to have a decision to make when it comes to wide receiver Puka Nacua this offseason. Nacua is in the final year of his rookie contract and the Rams appear to be waiting to hand out an extension.

During the summer, it was reported that Nacua wasn’t expected to get an extension before the season as he managed his off-field situation. Head coach Sean McVay said during training camp that there was no timeline on it.

“I don't know that I can really say this timeline or stuff like that because I don't think you want to dangle a carrot that way,” said McVay. “I think he's inspired to do right because his heart is right. The contract and things like that will take care of itself because he's an incredible player.”

Rams Have Found Offensive Success Without Puka Nacua

While the Rams may be leaning toward extending Nacua, the offense’s performance without him the last two years is certainly notable. The Rams beat the New York Giants 28-6 on Monday night as the offense put up 481 total yards.

Against the Jaguars last season, the Rams had only 271 yards of total offense without Nacua, but won 35-7. It was also arguably one of the more efficient games for the Rams offensively for the year.

In Week 7 against the Jaguars, the Rams’ offense averaged 0.07 EPA per play via Sumer Sports. Against the Jaguars, they averaged 0.19 EPA per pass compared to 0.21 for the season. Without Nacua, the passing offense averaged just 0.02 EPA less than with him.

Against the Giants, the Rams averaged 0.6 EPA per pass. That ranked as the second-best passing game for the Rams via EPA since 2022. Only their Week 14 win against the Buffalo Bills in 2024 was higher. For comparison, their game against the Jaguars ranked 22nd out of 70 games.

That’s not to diminish Nacua’s value to the offense. Nacua created 112.9 receiving EPA for the Rams last season. The next closest wide receiver was George Pickens at 82.7. Nacua created just over 30 total receiving EPA more than the receiver in second.

However, as it stands, Nacua’s market value via Spotrac is set at $40.2 million per season. Is Nacua’s value to the offense worth $40.2 million?

It certainly helped that the Rams still had Davante Adams against the Giants. Adams had eight receptions for 195 yards and two touchdowns. Still, Terrance Ferguson filled Nacua’s role in the offense and had six receptions for 54 yards and a touchdown.

Puka Nacua’s Injury History Adds Another Layer to Contract Decision

An added factor in this is Nacua’s injury history. His off-field issues are worth some hesitancy in making him the highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL. However, his injury history might be more concerning. With Nacua missing the Week 2 game against the Giants, he hasn’t played a full season since his rookie year.

Nacua missed five games due to injury in 2024 and missed a game last year. He already missed one this season and his status is uncertain for Week 3 against the Denver Broncos. Nacua plays a physical brand of football. If the Rams were to give him a large extension, they would need to be mindful of his role going forward. With that said, Nacua’s soft-tissue injuries this season came before he even took a snap. The Rams’ wide receiver managed a psoas injury in his groin toward the end of training camp. His hip injury last week was unrelated, but it also occurred during practice.

Again, this isn’t to say that the Rams shouldn’t give Nacua an extension. At the same time, it’s still something worth considering during the negotiation process. Nacua was a fifth-round pick and the Rams have gotten the most out of him. In a wide receiver-friendly offense and one that seems to be focusing more on tight ends, could the Rams get by with a cheaper option?

Could Rams Find a Cheaper Alternative to Puka Nacua?

Could the Rams take the money they could use on Nacua and instead spend it on another free-agent wide receiver, such as Parker Washington or Josh Downs, who could cost half the price? It’s something to think about, especially as the Rams have to make decisions on other key players as well.

Teams should pay their best players and Nacua fits into that category for the Rams. Nobody should come away from Monday night and believe the Rams are a better team without their best wide receiver. However, the performance did show that they may be capable of surviving without him. That doesn’t mean the Rams should move on from Nacua after the season, but it does provide more information as they determine what his value should be.

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