Waiting on a Puka Nacua Contract Extension Could Become an Expensive Gamble for the Rams

As the Los Angeles Rams have begun training camp, there has been plenty of discussion surrounding the future of wide receiver Puka Nacua. While it seems likely that he’ll eventually receive a long-term extension, that type of deal doesn’t seem imminent.

Following an offseason in which Nacua was the center of off-field drama, the Rams want to ensure that their wide receiver is worth that type of investment. There’s no question what Nacua brings on the field. However, recent off-the-field questions have added some uncertainty.

Earlier this week, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported, “My understanding of the situation is do not expect a Puka Nacua contract extension before the season.” That was seemingly confirmed by McVay and Nacua during their press conferences.

“I don't know that I can really say this timeline or stuff like that because I don't think you want to dangle a carrot that way,” said McVay. “I think he's inspired to do right because his heart is right. The contract and things like that will take care of itself because he's an incredible player.”

This is a situation where many things can all be true at the same time. It’s certainly fair that the Rams would want to wait to give a contract to Nacua until his legal situation is figured out. Nacua's attorneys objected to a scheduled Friday deposition because of a scheduling conflict and have proposed holding it over the weekend, after September 7, or on another agreed-upon date.

From the Rams’ perspective, it’s fair to wait for the legal process to play out as well as make sure Nacua continues to show personal growth and maturity after going to rehab and seeing a therapist.

With that said, the longer the Rams wait, it’s also potentially costing them more. Before the Dallas Cowboys finally came to an agreement with CeeDee Lamb, contracts for Justin Jefferson and other top wide receivers got done.

By letting the market reset before signing him, players like Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and AJ Brown drove up the price significantly. Had the Cowboys simply signed Lamb earlier, they may have been able to extend him for around $30 million annually instead of the eventual $34 million.

The Rams are in a similar situation with Nacua. Earlier this offseason, the Seattle Seahawks and Jaxon Smith-Njigba reset the wide receiver market with a deal averaging $42.15 million annually. Smith-Njigba was the first wide receiver not named Ja’Marr Chase to break the $40 million APY mark.

George Pickens’ contract is set to come up at the end of the year and the New Orleans Saints just extended Chris Olave for $31 million annually. Brian Thomas Jr. will also be eligible for an extension. It’s unlikely that Pickens or Thomas Jr. break $40 million per year with the new contract, but Nacua’s deal will certainly be more expensive than either of those. The longer the Rams wait, the more expensive Nacua potentially becomes.

Right now, Nacua’s market value via Spotrac is $40.2 million. However, it’s possible that the Rams could get Nacua closer to $38 million, which would put him between Chase and Drake London. If Pickens or Thomas sign deals next offseason that exceed $35 million, it only makes it more certain that Nacua’s deal exceeds the $40 million.

That also assumes the Rams work to get Nacua’s deal done next offseason. The Rams could simply give Nacua the franchise tag, which is projected at around $31 million for a wide receiver in 2027. If the Rams were to give Nacua the franchise tag and wait until 2028 for a long-term extension, once again, Nacua’s price only increases.

Again, it seems like this is heading in one direction and it’s only a matter of when it happens, not if it does. It’s only a matter of if the Rams decide to take the direct or more scenic route to get there. If the Rams don’t pay Nacua, some team certainly will. While Nacua didn’t have the leverage to hold out this offseason, he would next year if he were to receive the franchise tag while continuing to show personal growth.

It’s certainly a tough balance for the Rams as they manage whether Nacua is worth the risk of a big contract while also getting the timing right. While the Rams have done deals with Trent McDuffie and Myles Garrett this offseason, they have several of their own players they need to figure out long-term. The question in Nacua's situation is whether the added certainty the Rams gain by waiting outweighs the potential savings of getting a deal done now.

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