How Much Will Lamar Jackson Run In Week 1? We Suspect Quite A Bit

Lamar Jackson gives every defensive coordinator nightmares.

He is the ultimate dual threat quarterback, very much in his prime, now being deployed in a never-before-seen offense being concocted by a first-time play caller. It’s a lot for anyone to have to face in Week 1, and for Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, it’s a particularly acute challenge.

Because few coordinators have had a more difficult time beating Jackson than Anarumo, who did great work previously with the Bengals but was just 1-9 facing this quarterback. In studying those games and certain trends and things that worked particularly well for Jackson, its clear that he’s had great success attacking these defenses in particular ways.

Anarumo’s defense has evolved some with the Colts but hardly changed significantly. Baltimore’s offense, of course, is “brand new” as Jackson put it and, in theory, should bear little resemblance to what we’ve seen under Todd Monken and Greg Roman here, but let’s also keep it real – Declan Doyle, 30, will absolutely note the things that Jackson has done to have this much success against this defense, and it would be silly to ignore that in his first time ever calling plays himself.

So I’m going to make a few early predictions about how Doyle will approach this game. Or at least what he intends to do.

Run Lamar Run

The debut of an offensive line that has never played together before and likely sports some potential serious interior issues is hardly ideal. The Ravens have a slew of rookie pass catchers who will be making their debut, and Jackson’s legs have been at the core of what he’s done against Anarumo.

Jackson averages 10 carries for 66 yards against this defense, and he has run the ball at least nine times in six of their last seven meetings. It’s not just about the option football that Roman played, it’s been a way to sustain drives and move the ball against Anarumo. And this has been an issue for Anarumo’s defense, even in Indianapolis.

Consider the following from 2025 – Colts vs QB Runs:

21st in EPA (0.20) 31st Success Rate (31.6%) 29th 3rd Down Conversion (78.9%)

How many designed runs will there be for Jackson in Week 1? Probably will have plenty to do with how the game begins and how things play out, but I guarantee you that Doyle will have plenty of them installed in the game plan and on that call sheet ready to go to test this defense in ways it has been unable to withstand before.

If Jackson had 10 carries in a tight game I wouldnt be surprised at this point.

Tight Ends As WRs

The Ravens are going to be in 11 personnel quite a bit to open this season, we strongly believe, as they don’t really have true tight ends they trust in all capacities of play. And when Josh Cuevas or Matthew Hibner are on the field, we see them as slot receivers more than any in-line factor. They are Jokers, with tight end listings on a roster running receiver routes and working as receivers.

The data after this game will likely show a ton of 12 and 13 personnel but we don’t buy that these kids are being asked to actually serve as tight ends yet. (Our friend Cynthia Frelund agreed with me about this on “The Daily Flock” last week in terms of how Doyle might trend early in the season).

These rookies just need to be big targets downfield finding seams and getting open. Jackson has shredded Anarumo’s defenses throwing to tight ends

Jackson throwing to TEs vs Anarumo defenses: 70-for-97 (72.2%), 9 TD - 0 INT, 127.4 rating.

Mark Andrews made a habit out of torching the Bengals defenses and he isn’t as fast or spry as he once was. I expect to see the first-down, play-action bootleg looks that were featured for the rookie tight ends in the preseason to show up Sunday.

Last season Ararumo's defense allowed 1186 passing yards to tight ends, second-most in the NFL, and 8.4 yards per attempt to TEs, 29th. Opposing QBs had a rating of 107.9 throwing to TEs against them Colts, and just 88.0 throwing to WRs (just 15 TDs to 12 INTS). The Colts also allowed 14 passs of 20 yards or more to tight ends last season, 27th in the NFL.

Would Anarumo use defensive backs, more a strength of his, aginst the rookie TEs rather than linebackers? It's something we'll be tracking closely Sunday afternoon.

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