The 1 Thing The Ravens Must Do Above All Else To Beat The Saints

The Baltimore Ravens defense has a clear idea what the New Orleans Saints want to do with the football Sunday.

This isn’t about deception and multiplicity. It’s not about diversity of targets.

It’s about feeding one game-breaker as much as possible and seeing how much damage he can do, and against the Ravens revamped secondary under rookie head coach Jesse Minter it will be fascinating to watch unfold. It’s quite a different challenge from Week 1’s thumping of the Colts, where hobbled quarterback Daniel Jones wasn’t going to push the ball downfield at all. Minter knows the Saints are going to feed receiver Chris Olave wherever they can, and how well he mitigates it could tell the tale in his first home game as coach of the Ravens.

“A really big challenge,” corner Marlon Humphrey said of the All pro target. “I think he is kind of the leader of that group that they have. They are all over the place with kind of how they pass the ball around. Their tight ends can block, but they also run routes really well.

"So, I think kind of putting a cap on Olave is kind of where it starts. If you can kind of hold him to the lower side of receptions and yards, then you have a good chance, and then you kind of have to deal with everyone else. But, Olave - he has kind of been the force”

Easier said that done.

But the strength of this Ravens defense is the secondary, the group is deep and talented and Minter is a master tactician. The Saints are going to test his coverages immediately by throwing to Olave, and while Week 1 was a little extreme with the Saints in recovery mode to the Lions and chasing the game and throwing a ton – 62 dropbacks in an OT game on 86 (!) plays - it’s also an indication of who they are, and who they believe in.

The Go-To Guy

Olave caught 10 of 13 targets for 180 yards against a beat up Lions secondary. New Orleans has a better offensive line that what the Colts offered last week, and most definitely a better left tackle, and that allows them to spray the ball all over the field … but, again, to Olave more often that now. Since Tyler Shough established himself as the starting quarterback midway through last season, here is their target share:

Saints Targets In Shough’s Starts

Olave: 85

TE Juwan Johnson: 57

WR Devaughn Vele: 37

WR Kevin Austin Jr.: 22

Kind of speaks for itself, right? He has almost as many targets as Option 2 and Option 3, combined. He has 85 targets in those 10 games and every other WR who has been on the Saints roster have combined for 107. Olave has 57 receptions and the other nine receivers combined for 73.

A Moving Target

Olave can be a game changer in the slot or lined up outside. He averaged over 14 air yards per target from either location, and he averages nearly five first downs per game playing with Shough – getting featured in crucial moments. Since last November, when Shough took over, Olave is in the top 10 in the NFL in targets (despite missing some time with injury) and top 10 in target percentage among WRs (26%).

Olave is fifth in the NFL in that span in air yards per target (among every WR with 50 or more targets) and he is averaging an explosive play on one of every four targets. Shough has dropped back 400 times in those 10 starts (only Jacoby Brissett, Jared Goff and Caleb Williams have done it more). Like many young QBs, Shough is better against man coverage ( 5 TDs to 1 INT and a 111.2 rating) than zone (5 TDs to 6 INTs and a 90.3 rating), and interestingly enough, he has a 128.4 career rating against dime coverage (six or more defensive backs) and just 89.5 against nickel (five DBs).

Minter played almost twice as much dime coverage as anyone in the in Week 1. We’ll see if that alters at all, but it’s likely he is in zone coverage even more than the 77% last week. The Ravens have a pretty good idea what to expect. They just have to stop it. Getting All-Pro defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike back from neck surgery could certainly jolt the pass rush, and Shough will make mistake under pressure.

“Their quarterback is slinging it,” hybrid defender Kyle Hamilton said. “I know they were kind of in 'two-minute mode' for a lot of last game. He can make a lot of throws on the field. They have Olave, Vele, all those other guys. The tight ends are good, too, and Travis [Etienne] coming out of the backfield.

“There is a bunch of talent on that offense, and they have a solid O-line, too. You don't put up 400 yards passing by accident. I know they're throwing the ball a lot, but still, it's up to us as a defense, especially as a secondary, to take that as a challenge and go out there and stop it."

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