The 5 Stats You Must Know Before Watching Ravens At Colts Week 1

Numbers can be deceiving, I suppose.

But they also tell a story and after spending a week dissecting this intriguing Ravens trip to Indianapolis in every fashion possible, there are certain numbers we believe will lead to the ultimate outcome in this game. There is film, and the numbers that correlate to it, that paint a bleak portrait for either team from the past, and will demand corrections ahead of Sunday.

Those numbers from the past will dictate how these coaches allocate numbers Sunday – how many defensive linemen are used or defensive backs or how many blitzers – in different situations to try to prevail. These are not division rivals, and these teams aren’t meeting all the time, but there is a deep history between some Ravens offensive players and Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, and there have been some moments of greatness and some staggering defeats when the Jesse Minter/Mike Macdonald defensive family tree has faced Shane Steichen’s Colts’ offense.

These are the numbers that stand out the most ahead of a Week 1 game that could end up having significant playoff ramifications:

9-1

That’s Lamas Jackson’s career record against Anarumo, and he finds ways to best his defenses, usually with the legs playing a major role. And that’s why we lean to the Ravens here, because they have the greatest football player on the planet (or damn close to it) and he’s healthy and he gives this coordinator fits.

Jackson generally runs 10 times for close to 70 yards against this coordinator and is nearly perfect throwing to big target slot receivers against it. Indy has linebacker issues and top defensive tackle DeForest Buckner is playing for the first time since neck surgery in late December and Jackson can take this game over with his legs if he needs to, with plenty of help from Derrick Henry.

12

That’s how many pass rush reps Kyle Hamilton has against the Colts in 2023. He’s never had seven in any of the other 68 games he played. Macdonald deployed him in a menacing role in that game and Minter should do the same today. Macdonald blitzed like mad (over 50% of the snaps) and Hamilton (three sacks) was used as an extra end and not just coming from the slot or second level.

Hamiton has five pressures and three quarterback hits and two hurries and he knocked a ball down at the line of scrimmage and he forced a fumble and the Ravens had another sack on one of his blitzes (split by Roquan Smith and Jadeveon Clowney). I’m not saying we get that again, but there are myriad reasons why Minter can’t just sit back and play zone and allow the defense to get dinked and dunked to death like Daniel Jones did to him last year in Los Angeles. Speaking of which …

136.5

That’s Jones passer rating against Minter last season on passes that went less than five yards downfield. Yeah, that 15/18 for 140 yards and two touchdowns and one of the worst YAC performances in Minter’s two years running the Chargers defense. It’s what Jones does.

More man coverage is probably in order, more of Hamilton draped on game-breaking tight end Tyler Warren when he isn’t blitzing. Baltimore is without All Pro defensive lineman Nnamdi Madubuike and starting linebacker Teddye Buchanan and Roquan Smith and Trenton Simpson were total liabilities in coverage last season. Jones will test them.

7.11

That’s what Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor averaged per carry against Minter last season when the Chargers had five or more defensive backs on the field. Gulp. And with no Madubuike and no Buchanan, Minter best be willing to get heavier here.

Could we see some 4-3 looks? He ended up playing 31% of the snaps in 3-4 (a high number for Minter) in that loss last October – giving up 38 points in the process – and would be shocking if he doesn’t exceed that today. Minter had the worst run D EPA and yards before contract and plenty else in that meeting YHPER and we suspect there were lessons learned.

11

Aug 28, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens center Jovaughn Gwyn (54) blocks Washington Commanders tackle Ricky Barber (50) during the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

That’s how many snaps Ravens starting center Jovaughn Gwyn has played on offense in his career and he’s never to be a center before. The Ravens didn’t sign Danny Pinter (who was lost for the season last month) and Ethan Pocic (who has nearly 6,000 career snaps) expecting this outcome, and they have made it clear Gwyn is only officially the starter for Week 1, because if Pocic was fully back from Achilles surgery he’d be starting.

The interior of the Ravens offensive line could lose this game for them, especially moving to more of an under-center offense. This OL has played 0 snaps together, ever, even in preseason games and Vega Ioane is making his NFL debut and there could be communication and cohesion issues in a brand-new offense with a rookie play caller, Declan Doyle, in his first game.

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