We Predicted 370 Total Yards For Ravens QB Lamar Jackson Week 1 And He Delivered. More Of The Same Week 2?

A week ago we loved pretty much everything about Lamar Jackson’s matchup with the Colts.

It was a defense that he had almost never failed to shred (now 10-1 against coordinator Lou Anarumo filled with dominance with his legs and arm). It was a defense lacking linebackers and dealing with key players just back from injury and a defense that Jackson, armed with a full compliment of pass catchers, was likely to destroy in play action.

For today’s home opener Jackson is without two of his three starting receivers last week and the one who is playing, Rashod Bateman, managed one target last week and Lamar has a lower pass rating throwing to him than anyone he’s ever thrown to 40 times or more. An offensive line that allowed a pressure on basically half of Jackson’s dropbacks last week and had barely ever played together before, is now likely heavily recast as well with left tackle Ronnie Stanley likely to be significantly limited or not play at all, and the Saints getting healthier up front.

There are games that set up to be four-quarter tapestries where Jackson’s genius is on full display until the Ravens merely sit on the ball and bleed the clock. And others where the onus should not be on rookie offensive coordinator Declan Doyle showing off his good but rather taking a triage approach, understanding some of the dangers ahead, and scaling things back to try to survive and advance for four quarters.

Playing this game without Ronnie Stanley, Zay Flowers, Ja’Kobi Lane and possibly John Simpson, with guys like Carson Vinson and Emery Jones starting alongside guys like Jovaughn Gwyn (1 NFL start) and Vega Ioane (1 NFL start) makes that decision for you. Doyle best heed those data points if in fact that’s the hand he and Lamar are dealt come 1pm and kickoff in Doyle and head coach Jesse Minter’s first game in Baltimore.

So, no, we aren’t championing the case for Jackson accounting for 370 yards himself like we did last week. Jackson’s presence remains one of the singular biggest advantage any team can have, but the approach must be tailored to the situation, and coming out with 50 yard bombs on corner routes to whomever tries to replace Flowers in this offense would be a pretty naïve.

Here’s what we do expect:

Scramble Drill

LAMAR BEING LAMAR 🤯

Jackson avoids the sack and uses his legs to get the first down 🔥

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/FNod0E0YYY
— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) September 13, 2026

No matter which five men are in front of Jackson, he is going to need his legs to protect himself today.

And, honestly we anticipate it’s a six-man line quite a bit and should be a six-man line quite a bit and with their lack of real NFL tight ends who can help in pass protection, it’d best be a lot of six-man lines. More than last week, even.

Saints defensive coordinator Brandon Staley has done an excellent job on Jackson in two meetings and while one was with Greg Roman calling plays and another was with Todd Monken doing so, a lot of what he did should bode well today. He prioritized hemming Jackson in and containing the pocket and spying him over attack him. And he may be able to get significant pressure today without blitzing and maintaining the Cover-3 approach that reigned Jackson in.

I have a hard time thinking Jackson is not going to have to keep the ball on some draws and attempts to feel out the interior of this defense at the second level if he can get there. I have a hard time thinking we’re not going to need to see two or three instances where he sloughs off a sure sack at midfield like he did early in Week 1 and turns it into a long first-down run. If last week’s game wasn’t basically a blowout in the second half we expected 10-plus runs (Anarumo hasn’t come close to stopping Lamar’s legs, ever).

In two previous games against Staley Jackson has one run over 20 yards and the other 18 have gone for 68 total (under four per carry). These numbers dictate the game. Could he produce three critical runs to expand drives that lead to points?

Spread It Around

Jackson had nine men catch footballs from him last week. And without the guy who turned six first-half targets into 150 yards and five catches of 12 yards or more, all the more reason to anticipate the same. Hard to think that won’t be required. Trying to turn Bateman into some sort of funnel would be a recipe for turnovers and him as a deep decoy on a day I don’t think this OL will allow Lamar to attack with abandon is fine with me.

However, rookie tight end Matthew Hibner pulling down third-down catches in the slot in the role of Lane is probably going to have to be a thing. Veteran Chris Moore making a key catch or two is imperative. Tight end Mark Andrews, who the league thinks is near the end and wanted little to do with when the Ravens tried to trade him, needs to be a consistent performer on a day when the opponent knows as much. Sentimental GM Eric DeCosta is paying him $13M a year; better get his money’s worth working with Lamar today.

I expect Doyle to be running many different players out there in various formations because he needs his collective to show up in the passing game. They were short on impact options beyond Flowers with how they built this team originally and the injuries have increased that. They also might need more Justice Hill to help with pass protection if the line is really suffering and this could be a day where he catches five balls.

In two games vs Staley Jackson has never produced 180 passing yards and he has a rating of 75.8 with 2 TD passes and 2 INTs. Doyle need to be mindful of that, because today’s not the day to make a point about how much better he can do pushing the ball downfield in your explosive new offense.

Prediction

This is a Keep It Simple Stupid game now. As much Derrick Henry under center as possible. A week ago, the Ravens operated at one of the fastest paces in the NFL in the first half to build their early lead; we expect the opposite here trying to shorten this football game.

If Jackson rips off three or more runs of 10+ yards, that would be ideal. Can we keep his dropbacks in the 25 range? Can we scale the offense so the bulk of these are high-percentage passes? And expect them to be leaning even more into bootlegs and moving the pocket around to help protect the QB.

With so many novice pass catchers and potentially novice linemen on the field, the propensity for turnovers is high. That needs to be baked into the game plan. Lamar going 18-for-24, with no more than one turnover, in a high-volume, multiple run approach feels like a solid range to shoot for.

My goal would be for Jackson to hemorrhage this defense as much as possible laterally, knowing the vertical stuff probably needs to come from YAC with how Staley will probably play this. Screens til they can't stop them, maybe even with return guy LaJohntay Wester showing up there. High compeltion percentage on passes loser to the line of scrimmage to stay on script and allow us to run the ball 40 times if possible.

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