What To Expect From Lamar Jackson In Week 3 Through The Air And On The Ground

Through two weeks we’ve been pretty spot on in what we expected from Lamar Jackson.

A few early explosive runs and a command performance Week 1 in which we called for 370 total yards from the two-time MVP. Last week we poured over his snaps against Brandon Staley defenses and told you we thought the Saints coordinator could handle the Ravens coordinator and predicted a tepid offensive output, and around 225 passing yards for Lamar with limited production from his legs.

We said any more than 24-25 dropbacks with that offensive line was asking for trouble and the goal should be as close to 40 team rushes are possible and we figured 18-for-24. He ended up 21/31 for 235 yards and rookie coordinator Declan Doyle had a heavy hand in blowing an 11-point lead. So, what are we thinking for Week 3? Well, the offensive line situation looks more bleak with star left tackle Ronnie Stanley out, and Jovaughn Gwyn still at center, and some revealing film out there on how to attack the soft interior of this line in pass protection.

We’re going to give Doyle the benefit of the doubt that he aligns his philosophies accordingly and with just one designed run executed so far this season – Doyle says he’s called a bunch but the defenses haven’t provided “the right looks” for Jackson to execute. Here’s what I know watching three years of QB runs for Dallas - the Cowboys are always providing the right look for a QB to pick up 15-20 yard chunks on the ground.

Alllas Defense

Why Allas? Because the Cowboys play no run defense (they don’t play much defense of any kind).

Here’s where they rank in EPA when the QB is the ball carrier the last three years: 25th, 29th, 32nd. Since 2024 the Cowboys have a -33.42 EPA vs QB runs, dead last; the Steelers are 31st in that category at -16.20 – that’s quite a chasm.

The Cowboys have faced the most QB runs this season, because, duh, and if you filter out fumbled snaps and knee downs and situations of more than one yard required for a first down, they have faced 13 QB runs; nine have gone for seven yards or more and five have gone for 14 or more. Jayden Daniels had seven runs for 69 yards in the first half last week before suffering a freak elbow injury.

“We've called a number of zone reads,” Doye said. ”It just so happens that defensive ends also know that he has the ability to keep it … I think that he's one of the best in the world at it. We try to build it into every plan that we have, whether that's situational football, whether that's in base downs and [having] the ability to threaten with the run.”

Jackson said: "I am a part of the run game. Like I said, we [are] inside the building, we watch film and we go over the game plan and stuff like that. Sometimes, the defense just doesn't give us the look."

I’m not saying it’s now or never, but QBs running on international “pitches” made for soccer in South America, Mexico, Germany, Spain and France (outside of London and Australia) have an EPA of +1.24 per rush. Its 0.78 in domestic games, and overall run EPAs are significantly better while passing generally suffers.

Through The Air

Jan 4, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) drops back to pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first half at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The two games played previously in Brazil averaged around 790 totals and 56 points. This could very well be another shootoout.

Without knowing whether Zay Flowers (hamstring) is going to play this game, and if he does how much he’s a decoy, makes this tricky. Given how poor Dallas’s pass rush has been and it’s corners are, this should be about making the drop backs count and redzone accuracy is what I’m most interested in.

They can run between the 20s but can they finish drives in the air? Can we throw for a couple of touchdowns? Dallas has done a really nice job of not giving up 20 yard plays, but they have injuries on the back end. I could see Derrick Henry’s work in the screen game continue to tick up.

Prediction

I could see this environment and the crowd giving Jackson a boost. Dallas opened Week 1 against a Greg Roman run game (remember him, Lamar’s first coordinator) and looked like it had never seen a QB option before. Washington was carving them the same way. I could see Lamar rushing for 75+ yards and a touchdown here and throwing for a few. They made need to score into the 30s to win this game.

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