Zay Flowers Is The Ravens No. 1 WR, But Won't Have To Be Paid Like A Top No. 1 WR

Zay Flowers is, without question, the Ravens No. 1 wide receiver and the only in-form, consistent downfield target Lamar Jackson has on the entire roster.

He is one of the most important players on the 2026 roster.

However, that does not mean he is a true No. 1 receiver as the league sees it at this moment in time with the evolution of the pass game and the field getting flooded with spread formations, and therefore, it also doesn’t ensure that the smaller receiver will be paid like a true top-of-market threat in his next contract. Actually, a study of Flowers’s unique import to this offense, and comparing him to the best wide receivers around the league, points to his fifth-year option total ($28M for 2027) are a pretty accurate barometer of where he falls in the pantheon of the game’s best, and the ballpark his annual salary should land in ($30M/season) should he and the team execute a contract extension (and certainly that’s the Ravens intentions).

Undoubtedly, this offense would be lost without him at this point from a personnel standpoint and with a 30-year-old, rookie offensive coordinator in Declan Doyle, who has never called a play, taking over for well-established Todd Monken. But Flowers also has physical limitations and therefore a cap on the quadrants of the field in which he makes an impact and the number of scoring plays he takes part in, and the fact he is playing with what should be a three-time MVP quarterback in Lamar Jackson also provides a significant boost not all pass catchers benefit from.

Flowers is the most impactful receiver the Ravens have ever drafted and the best young receiver in the history of their franchise and is poised to be the rarest of commodities (a Ravens receiver draft pick who gets a second contract here). But he also simply has not, and likely will not, do what others around the league do in the redzone and around the goal line and in the endzone, which is a significant factor in assessing the moder receiver.

For me, he’s a 1.5, not a 1, with the lack of paydirt plays and very real factor for a team that needs to boost its scoring output in 2026. And if they could ever pair him with true size/speed winner on the outside – someone to do what Rashod Bateman did in 2024 and 2024 only - this attack might get back to where it once was.

The Case For Being A No. 1 WR

There are plenty of metrics one could point to – and Flowers’s representatives surely will point to – that make Flowers stand out among the best of the best. That could help them say he is among the top 12-18 receivers on the planet, and only getting better. And that if the Ravens had a decent offensive line and anyone else for Lamar to count on, Flowers would be better positioned to thrive even more, with coverage not so shifted to him.

Consider the staggering fact that Flowers had 1,211 receiving yards last season, despite Jackson missing time, and no one else on the team had even 425, and the next closest guy – aging tight end Mark Andrews (422) – can’t separate or leap or win downfield much anymore.

In 2025, Flowers ranked sixth in receiving yards and 7th in reception percentage (72.9%), fifth among all WR in target percentage (29%), 12th in YAC/reception. While his air yards per target (we’ll get to that in a minute) doesn’t project to being a bigtime downfield winner, Flowers ranked fourth among all WR with at least 40 receptions at 2.53 yards per route (per TruMedia), and 10th in explosive plays/target (23.7%) and 16th in first downs per route run (10%).

The offense revolved around him in many ways, and Monken had him in motion 23.2% of the time, second most among all WRs. This isn’t just a throw-and-catch target. He also has an uncanny ability to be where Lamar needs him to be when things break down (even more important now with Isaiah Likely gone), and if this OL is as shaky as a year ago, there will amply need to capitalize on the scramble drill.

The Case Against Being A No. 1 WR

Flowers is listed at 5-9, 185. That’s never really going to change. Lamar prefers larger targets and they are in short supply around here. This offense sunk to 27th in the redzone last year, and Flowers is not going to help them much there. Of course, if he was three inches taller he wouldn’t have been available where the Ravens took him, either (great value at 22nd overall).

So, excuse the dad joke (and I am 5-7.5 on a good day) but here’s where he comes up short:

Flowers had just five touchdown catches last season, ranking 32nd among NFL receivers and he averaged 10.2 air yards per target (42nd). He only ranked 27th in routes run, as he is not going to show up in all situations and all parts of the field. He averaged a route depth of 8.97 yards, which ranked 33rd among WR last season.

Flowers had 10 red zone targets (T-41st), and five end zone targets (T-42nd) and he ranked 33rd in drop percentage (4.3%).

Over his three seasons, Flowers ranks 32nd among receivers in touchdowns (14), and T-34th in red zone targets (30) and T-45th in end zone targets (18). He is more Tee Higgins ($30M guy) than Ja’Marr Chase ($40M guy), to use the Bengals as a guide for receivers getting recent deals.

What’s The Next Step?

Flowers is a winning football player and a great draft pick, but this offense won’t be near its best again until there is a bigtime winning outside receiver to compliment him. He ran 37% of his routes from the slot last year, a number that ideally would climb this season, though with the makeup of the receiver and tight end room I don’t see it.

When Lamar threw to Flowers in the slot last year he had a 128.9 rating, best on the team, completing 26-of-33 passes for 441 yards (Andrews was second at 221), averaging 13.4 yards per play. Doyle needs to stay creative here and keep moving him around to hunt for matchups. If he can scheme up ways to get him the ball in tight spaces, and when the field gets constricted in the redzone then I’ve undersold Flowers’s earning potential.

But that’s a projection I can’t make. And this roster looks at least one more impact pass catcher way from getting where the Ravens are hoping the passing game to go.

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