How Important is a Week 1 Win for the Saints?

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The New Orleans Saints open their second year under head coach Kellen Moore a week from Sunday when they travel to Detroit to take on the Lions. Kickoff set for Noon on September 13.

Moore has set about remaking his team's roster, trending in a younger direction, building through draft picks and some key free agent signings.

It can be heard in the talk of the players who mention the fluidity of the offense and freedom of the defense. Each step he and his staff take get the Saints closer to what is ultimately the next goal: making the playoffs.

Statistics Don't Lie...Most of the Time

For almost thirty-years, Rotowire has been covering sports betting and fantasy sports on the web. They have been putting together player projections, and data research. They put together a study using information publicly available and standings data that did a statistical review of NFL teams that have won their openers over the last decade.

Taking each NFL team's Week 1 result for 2016-2025, Rotowire matched it to that team's final postseason outcome. Teams were sorted into two groups, those that started 1-0 and those that started with a loss. They then calculated the share of each group that reached six milestones:
- winning its division
- making the playoffs
- advancing to the Division Round
- getting to the Conference Championship
- making it to the Super Bowl
- taking a Super Bowl title

According to Rotowire's crunching of the numbers, the Math maths: NFL teams that start 1-0 have made the playoffs 59% of the time over the last decade. Teams that start 0-1 have made the playoffs 25.6% of the time. That is a 2.3 times swing off just that first Sunday, and the pattern repeats itself up every one of the steps outlined above.

The 1-0 group didn't just make the playoffs, it was two-to-three times more likely to advance in each one of the categories Rotowire divided it into.

Step	Start 1-0	Start 0-1	Edge
Win the division	35.3%	16%	2.2-times
Make playoffs	59%	25.6%	2.3- times
Make Divisional	32.7%	18.6%	1.8-times
Make Conference	19.2%	6.4%	3.0-times
Make Super Bowl	9.0%	3.8%	2.4-times
Win Super Bowl	4.5%	1.9%	2.4-times

The site is quick to point out that a Week 1 victory does not mean a deep playoff run.

A season opener is often the first visible evidence that a roster is a contender; the win and the January success are both downstream of the same underlying quality. But that's exactly why the result is worth paying attention to in September -- it's an early read on which teams are for real.

Road vs Home in Week One

As for home or road games in Week 1, the statistics are even more interesting.

Start at home with a win in the first game of your season, and you have a 56.4% chance of making the playoffs. If you are on the road to start the year and claim a victory, your chances of making the playoffs are a whopping 61.5%.

It flips drastically if you lose. Get an "L" at home in Week 1, you're down to a 21.8% chance of making the playoffs. It's a little better if you lose on the road in that first game: 29.5%

Seven out of the ten Super Bowl winners over the last decade started with a victory to open the season.

The article is an interesting read. You can find it here.

So, Kellen Moore and his squad's goals to make the playoffs are pretty clear: win the first one, and you've got a much better chance of making it there. It all starts on September 13th.

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