Saints Analytics through 3 Weeks: Defense Slides, Offense Likes Runs Up the Gut

After the third week of the season, some tendencies are playing out for New Orleans.

Sep 20, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs with the ball while defended by Baltimore Ravens safety Jaylinn Hawkins (21) in the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Now 1-and-2 on the young season, the New Orleans Saints face their biggest rivals on Monday Night Football, as the Atlanta Falcons come to the Caesar's Superdome.

For a look at the Falcons offense, go here.

As the year progresses, we take a look each week at various metrics that give us a feel for where the Saints are when compared to the rest of the league. Today, we use data from Sharp Football Analysis and NFL Savant for the numbers.

Near the Top or Middle of the Pack in Offensive Categories

According to Sharp, the Saints continue to be one of best in the league in a few statistical groupings.

- New Orleans has the 7th best down conversion rate in the NFL at 76.3%. San Francisco leads that category converting 85% of the time.
- The Saints are in the upper third of the league in points per drive, the 10th slot at 2.4-points
- They are right in the middle of the league in the yards per play category at 5.2-yards.

Middle or Bottom in Defensive Categories

Sharp tells us the Saints D needs some work.

- New Orleans has the 7th worst down conversion rate allowed, at 76.7% of the time.
- They're right in the middle of the NFL in yards per play allowed, at 5.3-yards.
- In points per drive allowed, the Saints are 8th worst at 2.5-points.

Shough Tendencies

After three weeks, Saints quarterback Tyler Shough has shown the ability to make connections all over the field.

Where Saints QB Tyler Shough throws the ball | NFL Savant

From the NFL Savant chart above, the vast majority of the passes thrown are within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. 91 of Shough's passes are within 10-yards of the line, compared to someone like Buffalo's Josh Allen, who has thrown 58 of his passes up to 20 yards beyond the line.

Run Up the Gut

The Saints run game had started to come into its own as each game has progressed, increasing week-by-week in efficiency and yardage. Through three games, NFL Savant has charted the Saints rushing up the middle more than any other offensive line gap.

- Middle, 30-rushes, averaging 3.7-yards per carry
- Right tackle, 11-rushes, averaging 2.6-yards per tote
- Left guard and around right end, 9-rushes each (18 total), 5.1-yards per carry over left guard, 6.9-yards per around the right end.

What the Saints Do, When

NFL Savant also showed how often the Saints passed or ran the ball, depending on the down, distance, and quarter and if there was enough data in the sample size.

In the 1st quarter, the only sample with enough data was 1st and 10
- Out of the 86-plays run in the initial quarter on 1st and 10, the Saints pass 55.8% of the time

In the 2nd period
- If it's 2nd down and 1-3-yards to go, the Saints run 60% of the time (10 total plays)
- If it's 2nd down and 4-6-yards to go, pass is the call 56.3% of the time (16 total plays)
- It it's 2nd down and 7+ yards to go, you'll see the Saints pass 78.7% of the plays (47 total plays)

In the 3rd quarter
- If its 3rd and 1-3 yards, 62.5% of the plays are run (16 total plays)
- 3rd down and 4-6 yards, 91.7% of the time the Saints will pass (12 total plays)
- If its 3rd and 7+ yards, 94.7% of the plays are pass (19 total plays)

In period 4, there was not enough data through three games.

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