Statistics Speak Volumes. Does One Say the Saints are Being Hosed on Penalties?

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Statistical analysis can be helpful at times. At others, it can be quite confusing, while there are times where they prove your point that you've been trying to make.

This week, we found a ton of analytical information on the Internets that were interesting to us, the last of which absolutely made us sit up and take notice.

Red Zone Scoring

What Happens Once in the Red Zone — How teams do after Week 3 once they get in the red zone. | NFLFastR

This one, from NFLFastR ,shows what occurs when each NFL team gets in the red zone. The Saints are right up there when it comes to scoring points, especially touchdowns.

Offensive Sets and QB Positions

From Fball_Insights, this chart compares the percentage of times a team's quarterback is under center, in the shotgun, or the pistol formation along with the personnel groupings. After three weeks the Saints like the shotgun for QB Tyler Shough, which he runs 57% of the time, but that number has dropped compared to weeks 1 and 2. And the 11-personnel set is by far the one the Saints like most of all.

Early Down Offensive Plays — How each team lines up and where the quarterback situates himself except for the final two minutes of a half. | Fball_Insights

EPA through Three Weeks

EPA stands for Extra Points Added. It's analytics metric that measures the value of a football play by looking at how much it increases or decreases a team's chances of scoring. EPA is the difference (subtration of) the Expected Points value after a play ends and the Expected Points value before the play started.

So, for example, gaining 5 yards on 3rd-and-4 is huge because it gets a first down and keeps a drive alive (positive EPA). Gaining 5 yards on 3rd-and-12 still leaves you short, hurting your scoring odds (negative EPA)

Net EPA-Play Rankings — How teams are doing with Net EPA through three weeks. | SFData9ers

On this chart, provided by SFData9ers, the Saints find themselves right in the middle of NFL teams in this category, barely in the negative category.

Pass Defense Power Rankings

DVOA is another advanced analytics metric. It evaluates every single play against a league-average score based on down, distance, and field location, adjusting performance values depending on the strength of the opposing offense. It's expressed in a percentage when compared to the league-wide average of 0%, so a number in the negative means that team is that many percentage points better than average.

SmoLaDS's chart has the Saints at #20 in the league when using this tool, a precarious spot, with a score of 21.4.

Tight End Usage

From NFL Pro, one of our favorite displays of data that uses cubes. We find the Saints are using one tight end or fewer (the 11 or 21 personnel set) almost three-quarters of the time, pretty close to a league average.

Tight End Personnel Usage — Usage of tight ends through week 3 of the NFL season. | NFL Pro

We save the best for last, though.

Flags During Crunch Time for Your Team (Saints...)

Every team's fans gripe about calls going against their heroes, especially late in close games. A website called Stick to the Model decided to check the numbers.

Stick with us on this one.

From the 2018 season through the first three games of this year, they took specific penalties that can make or break a drive, Holding, Pass Interference, Face Mask, and other judgment flags, and added them up when it was a one score game in the 4th quarter and overtime. They created a coordinate plane (we know, Algebra...) that has four parts.

The four sections have specific designations and each team lands in that quadrant depending on the criteria they set on the chart.
- The top left is designated Refs Let Them Play.
- Top right is labeled Close Calls Go Your Way
- Bottom right is Flags Fly Both Ways
- Bottom right, Close Calls Go Against You

Where do the Saints land?

Who Gets Calls Late in the Game — If it's a close game, who gets the calls going their way and who doesn't? | Stick to the Model

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