ESPN projects strong odds for Seahawks to secure NFC's No. 1 seed

Among the many reasons Thursday's dramatic win over the Rams was beneficial for the Seattle Seahawks, the most important of all is what it did for their playoff situation. Not only are they in the driver's seat in the NFC West division, but according to one leading analytics projection they're now the odds-on favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) gives the 12-3 Seahawks a 47.6% chance of winning the conference, more than doubling the next-best team with the Rams checking in at 20.1%.

And while quarterback Sam Darnold is getting all the attention for finally beating a Rams team that's had his number the past two seasons, it's the running game that ESPN's Bill Barnwell points out helped create the opportunity to win on Thursday.

"What was more notable and significant for the Seahawks in this game, perhaps, is what happened when they weren't throwing the football. Suddenly, for the first time seemingly all season, the Seahawks had a run game! In addition to his long catch-and-run on a screen, Walker had 11 carries for 100 yards and a touchdown, including a 55-yard scamper. Shaheed had his 31-yard run. Charbonnet turned nine carries into 32 yards and a score, along with a critical third-down conversion just before the touchdown pass in overtime to Smith-Njigba."
Bill Barnwell, ESPN

Barnwell goes on to point out that Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak tweaked his game plan to kick-start the running game, going away from his typical reliance on a heavy dose of outside-zone runs and calling more inside gap/power plays.

"The Seahawks came into Week 16 using zone runs on 66.4% of their snaps this season, the sixth-highest rate. There's nothing wrong with heavy doses of zone runs if they work, but the Seahawks haven't run the ball well all year.

Walker scored on a gap run, with the Seahawks running duo, a core gap concept ESPN's data suggests they run at one of the lowest rates in the league."

Walker averaged 9.1 yards per carry against the Rams, and served as the catalyst for another crucial element to Seattle's offense, the play-action passing game. Darnold was 8-of-12 for 140 yards and two touchdowns when faking the run, compared to 14-of-22 for 130 yards with two interceptions on non play-action calls.

If Thursday’s offensive shift wasn’t a one-week anomaly, ESPN’s projection may be pointing to something bigger, a Seahawks team not just chasing the NFC’s top seed, but built to hold it.

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