Sam Darnold & Drake Maye Are Trending in Different Directions Entering Super Bowl

Sam Darnold went through three clear phases during his first season as the Seattle Seahawks' starting quarterback.

It took about a game and a half for Darnold to really find his rhythm, but once he did - sometime in the second half against Pittsburgh Week 2 - Darnold was throwing the ball about as well as any NFL quarterback, which he continued doing the rest of the first half of the regular season.

Going into the big Week 11 showdown with the Los Angeles Rams, Darnold had a 17-6 touchdown to interception ratio and was getting some buzz in the MVP conversation.

We all know what happened next. The Rams defense switched things up big time on Darnold, leading to a brutal four-interception performance that brought out all the old narratives about Darnold and his supposed inability to win big games. Darnold was better the following week against the Tennessee Titans, but he still wasn't quite himself - a trend which continued right up until the Seahawks' regular season against the 49ers.

While his traditional numbers weren't special in that game, Darnold played far better than he had most of the second half of the season, setting up Seattle's Super Bowl run.

Looking at Darnold's performance in EPA by week, you can see clear trend up starting Week 18 and into the playoffs.

Sam Darnold EPA by week

Sam Darnold EPA per dropback by week.

Really wasn't having a great second half of the season, especially relative to the first half, but NFC Championship was pretty fooking great. pic.twitter.com/L0ytW0qo4q
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 2, 2026

As for Darnold's opponent this week, New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye had a much better season overall and there's a decent chance he will win the league MVP award over Matt Stafford, even if the latter is more deserving.

However, things have been going in the exact opposite direction for Maye in this metric over the last few weeks. Here's a look at his chart.

Drake Maye EPA by week

Drake Maye EPA per dropback by week pic.twitter.com/USpZqmrvm9
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 3, 2026

To be fair, Maye's dip has coincided with facing playoff-caliber defenses. That includes the Chargers, Texans and Broncos, who finished second, third and eighth in QB fantasy points allowed per game in 2025.

While the defenses Darnold faced during this stretch weren't quite as good, it's not like he was facing any pushover units. If Darnold hadn't had an excellent outing against the Rams in the NFC title game the Seahawks would not be here.

If there is such a thing as QB momentum, then the Seahawks have a clear advantage in this department going into the Super Bowl.

Sam Darnold EPA by week

Drake Maye EPA by week

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