Seahawks-Rams NFC Championship Preview: By the Numbers

Rams Offense vs. Seahawks Defense

Dec 18, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks defensive end Leonard Williams (99) tackles Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) in the first half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Personnel Usage

The Seahawks defense is notorious for their effectiveness out of nickel personnel, which they use at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL, but what sometimes flies under the radar is how often they infuse their scheme with dime personnel as well. They have the 6th-highest usage of dime personnel, leaving them with one of the lowest rates of base personnel in the NFL (30th).

So, while Seattle is often referred to a nickel defense, it may actually be more appropriate to think of them as a non-base defense. What makes them unique is that they do not match personnel to the opponent's offense. Regardless of the offense's formation, the Seahawks do not stack the box (31st in stacked box rate) and commit to stopping explosive pass plays with two deep safeties (1st in two high safety rate).

Running the Ball

In theory, Seattle's defense should be susceptible to designed rushes, but that's not the case at all. They have the number one rushing defense by yards per carry, EPA per play, and success rate. Thanks to elite defensive tackles like Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy, combined with Mike Macdonald's unpredictable run fits from nickel and dime personnel, the Seahawks have conceded the third-fewest rushing yards per game while playing barely any base.

However, the Rams offense has maintained the best rushing success rate in the NFL this season at 50.1%. They've generated 0.045 EPA per play on early down runs, one of only five teams to average a positive EPA and more than double the efficiency of the second-best team. The key to this matchup will be how effective the best rushing offense is against the best rushing defense and whether the Rams can force the Seahawks to play more base personnel to slow them down.

Quarterback Pressure

The Seahawks defense ranks 13th on four-man rushes with a 37% pressure rate, but they are 1st in the NFL when sending five or more rushers, averaging a whopping 52% pressure rate on those plays. Mike Macdonald miticulously charts opponents' protection schemes and only sends more than four rushers at the quarterback when he believes he can get a free rusher to apply immediate pressure.

Even with the 8th-lowest blitz rate in the NFL, they are a top 5 defense in getting pressure on the quarterback thanks to strategically timed calls that maximize the efficacy of their designed pressures. Matthew Stafford this season was 3rd in EPA per play when not pressured, throwing passes deep down the field at the 4th-highest rate.

However, when pressured Stafford was only 9th in EPA per play and 17th in percentage of passes thrown deep. Macdonald will find ways to get quick pressure from a blitz when the opportunity presents itself, but the key to this game will be how often the four-man rushes can get pressure on Stafford to limit the number of deep shots he can take.

Seahawks Offense vs. Rams Defense

Dec 18, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) runs against the Los Angeles Rams in the first half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Personnel Usage

While the Seahawks have built their defense around nickel personnel, the Rams defense has a structure that is a little bit different. The Rams lead the league in dime personnel usage with virtually no nickel or base packages, ranking 28th in the usage of both of those personnels. LA uses dime over three times more often than the average NFL team in the 2025 season.

This structure is specifically designed to stop 11 personnel. Over the first half of the season, the Seahawks offense had zero games that netted a positive EPA per play out of 11 personnel. However, since trading for Rashid Shaheed, they have had a positive EPA from 11 personnel in seven out of nine games.

With TE Elijah Arroyo activated off of IR for the NFC Championship, one area to watch is whether the Seahawks offense continues to roll with what has been working for them lately or opts to run more 12 personnel to avoid playing into the strength of the Rams defense.

Running the Ball

Ken Walker III is coming off of one of the best rushing games of his career against the 49ers in the Divisional Round, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt with 3.7 yards after contact, and totaling 7 first downs with 3 touchdowns.

Meanwhile, the Rams have struggled at defending the run since the last time these two teams met, allowing a 41.8% success rate in the playoffs after allowing only a 37.6% success rate through the regular season. If Walker can continue to generate chunk gains on early downs and carry the ball into the end zone on the ground against a Rams defense trending in the wrong direction, it will be very difficult for the Rams to find the momentum necessary to upset the Seahawks at home in their own stadium.

Quarterback Pressure

The Rams defense is 4th in overall pressure rate but 23rd in pressure-to-sack rate; they are getting to the quarterback often but not consistently finishing the job. Sam Darnold has averaged -0.47 EPA per play under pressure and +0.62 EPA per play when not pressured, one of the biggest discrepancies among all NFL quarterbacks.

If the Rams can force Darnold to turn over the ball under pressure, they won't care that they're not getting home with sacks. If Darnold can play conservative football and be willing to use his legs to get back to the line of scrimmage or check the ball down for no gain to avoid putting the ball in harm's way, his efficiency from a clean pocket should far outweigh the losses the offense takes when the Rams get pressure.

Rams Offense vs. Seahawks Defense

Personnel Usage

Running the Ball

Quarterback Pressure

Seahawks Offense vs. Rams Defense

Personnel Usage

Running the Ball

Quarterback Pressure

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