NFL Playoffs: Shocking stat destroys popular narrative about Sam Darnold

Between now and the end of the Seattle Seahawks' playoff run, you're going to hear an awful lot about Sam Darnold and his suppsedly insurmountable turnover problem.

It is true that Darnold committed more turnovers (20) than any other starter in the NFL during the regular season. However, this narrative that the Seahawks' Super Bowl run is doomed because Darnold can't protect the ball is far overblown.

For one thing, Seattle has already proven that even multiple turnovers from Darnold doesn't necessarily guarantee a loss - the Seahawks hold an absurd 5-1 record this year when Darnold coughts up the ball two or more times.

For another, the raw turnover numbers are somewhat misleading - and when it comes to true turnover risk Darnold isn't the worst of the four remaining quarterbacks. He isn't second worse, either.

According to Brad Gagnon at Bleacher Report, MVP candidates Matt Stafford and Drake Maye committed more turnover-worthy plays this year than Darnold going by PFF's numbers.

"The good news is Seattle has now put together consecutive turnover-free games. And 10 quarterbacks—including Stafford and Maye—still recorded more turnover-worthy plays than Darnold this year, per Pro Football Focus."

This probably comes as a big surprise to most fans, as the prevailing narrative since midseason has been that Darnold cannot possibly lead a team to a championship because there is no other starter who's more liable to screw up in a clutch moment.

The truth is that Darnold had bad luck with turnovers this season - more than one of his interceptions came after bouncing off other players' helmets. Darnold's INT numbers easily could have been much worse if he didn't done an exceptional job of navigating pressure and making plays off-script.

It's also worth mentioning that Darnold has cleaned things up in his last few starts, playing turnover-free ball in the Seahawks' last two wins

The narrative is persistent, though - and as Gagnon noted, the Seahawks haven't gone three straight games without a turnover since Russell Wilson's last year as their starting quarterback.

"However, Seattle hasn't gone three consecutive games without a turnover since early in the 2021 season, so it's fair to wonder if the other shoe will drop in an untimely fashion and we'll see bad Darnold the way the Vikings did when it was all on the line last January. "

No matter what the season-long numbers say, it's probably more relevant that six of Darnold's 14 interceptions this year came in his two starts against the Los Angeles Rams.

Darnold will either shake off his issues against Mike Shula's disguises, or the Seahawks will have to utterly dominate on defense and special teams in order to advance.

Sam Darnold, Matt Stafford — Oct 24, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) meets with Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) following the game at SoFi Stadium. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

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