What Seahawks can expect from 49ers defense in divisional round matchup

Twelve years ago, Robert Saleh earned a super bowl ring as a defensive quality control coach for the Seattle Seahawks. And now, tomorrow evening, he’s going to have to find a way to stop his former team with an undermanned defense if he hopes to get a second ring. But given the obvious limitations of his unit, what is he likely going to try to do?

That’s the question that Mike Macdonald, Klint Kubiak, and Sam Darnold have to try to solve this week. And the answer may lie within a couple of schematic adjustments he made two weeks ago when the squads squared off against each other. As a Carroll acolyte, Saleh’s typical modus operandi is to keep things relatively simple, but look for a mixup this time around.

Saleh’s results in that week eighteen game were mixed. The 49ers defense allowed 361 yards, including 180 on the ground, forced one punt, and zero turnovers. On the other hand, they did find a way to limit Seattle to 13 points. Given how good the San Francisco offense has been this year, 13 points would usually cut it, but the Seahawks certainly controlled that game offensively.

I imagine that Saleh understands that, if the Seahawks are able to replicate that level of play to play success again on Saturday, it’s very likely that they’ll score significantly more points and probably cruise to victory behind a dominant defense against a short-handed 49ers offense. They need turnovers, they need punts, and maybe even more, they need to stop the run.

Saleh seemed to understand that even in the middle of that season finale game two weeks ago, based on this halftime adjustment he made. In the first half of that game, per TruMedia, the 49ers utilized nickel packages on 62% of their 34 defensive snaps, playing two-high safety looks such as Cover 4 and Cover 6 at a 25% clip. The Seahawks racked up 115 rushing yards.

So in the second half, recognizing that the 49ers wouldn’t be able to survive that level of control by the opposing offense, Saleh made some changes. The 49ers began dropping a safety into the box at a much higher rate, Cover 3 and Cover 1 going up to a 63% usage and two-high looks going down to 17%. Seattle had just 65 yards rushing in the second half.

The 49ers aren't getting this guy back yet, so stopping the run will require a schematic victory. — Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) rushes the ball past San Francisco 49ers middle linebacker Fred Warner (54). | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

It was a logical switchup, as the Seahawks were clearly committed to the run and seemed poised to pack the game away solely on the strength of their rushing attack. The Seahawks ended up winning the game anyway, but the 49ers allowed just three second half points, and were able to force Darnold to have to make some throws to keep the offense moving.

It’s that part that really looms large here, as it’s much harder to crank up variance against a team that is content to grind away on the ground. Both Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet almost never fumble, so it’s hard to generate turnovers against them. Meanwhile, despite a strong season, Sam Darnold leads the NFL in turnovers. That’s what the 49ers want.

Not that there aren’t risks. Sam Darnold feasted in the first half of the season against defenses that dared him to throw down the field with stacked boxes, and that was before the addition of Rashid Shaheed. Going single-high safety could just invite a series of big plays in the passing attack, packing the game away quickly. But now is not the time to be choosy.

The 49ers are down Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Mykel Williams, and Tatum Bethune. They don’t have the run defenders to win straight up. They need that extra man in the box, especially against Seattle, who have been among the best teams in the league on the ground over the last month. Every Darnold dropback invites variance that the 49ers should welcome right now.

Particularly given reports of Darnold’s oblique being less than 100% from yesterday’s practice. Despite assurances that he will play Saturday night, it’s not a bad idea to force him to prove that he’s okay, and some one-on-one coverage against Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Rashid Shaheed would certainly do that. Can Sam launch it forty yards down the field into a bucket right now?

If he can, you’re in a lot of trouble. But if the Seahawks rush for 200 yards Saturday evening, you’re in trouble regardless, and there’s no difference between a one point loss and a blowout anymore. So look for Saleh to play the run more aggressively with safeties in the box, and look for Darnold to have to make him pay a few times to knock him out of it.

Walker and Charbonnet will run all over the 49ers if they don't bring extra defenders into the box. — Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) rushes the ball against the San Francisco 49ers. | Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images

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