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Seahawks vs. Rams: Breaking down key turning points in Week 11 loss

Critical errors cost Seahawks potential win in otherwise impressive performance.
Caelan Thomas|
Los Angeles Rams safety Kamren Kinchens gets his first interception of the season off of Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold and carries the ball down to the 3-yard line.
Los Angeles Rams safety Kamren Kinchens gets his first interception of the season off of Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold and carries the ball down to the 3-yard line. | Los Angeles Rams

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Seattle SeahawksLos Angeles Rams

The Seattle Seahawks entered Sunday's contest against the Los Angeles Rams as underdogs, with a 40% win probability according to consensus betting lines set by Vegas.

In a game that had 23 different posessions and zero lead changes, the Seahawks failed to retake the lead after falling behind by a touchdown, set up by Sam Darnold's first interception of the day.

Seahawks win probability changes throughout the Rams game.
Seahawks win probability changes throughout the Rams game, highlighting Sam Darnold's four interceptions (red) and Jason Myers' missed 61-yard field goal (orange). | Caelan Thomas via rbsdm.com

Sam Darnold's most costly interception was his first, which dropped the Seahawks' win probability 19 percentage points from 47% to 28% and set up the Rams with the ball less than five yards from the end zone.

Darnold's next two interceptions came in the third quarter. The first, intended for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, dropped Seattle's win probability from 28% to 21% and ended what could have potentially been a momentum-shifting drive to take the lead out of halftime.

His second pick in the third quarter was more costly, dropping Seattle's win probability from 37% to 21% on a pass intended for rookie tight end Elijah Arroyo.

This one especially stings, as the Seahawks only trailed by two points when they gave the ball back to the Rams. Seattle's defense had just forced a punt, but a holding penalty on Anthony Bradford set up the 1st & 20 play on which Darnold threw his third interception of the day, once again giving the Rams posession deep in Seahawks territory.

By the numbers, Sam Darnold's fourth and final interception was not the most costly, only decreasing Seattle's win probability from 17% to 8%, but it was the final dagger in their realistic hopes of catching up on the scoreboard.

Down by nine points, the Seahawks were driving with the hopes of cutting the Rams' lead to one posession in the fourth quarter. On a critical 3rd down in field goal range, Darnold threw the ball right to Rams defensive back Darious Williams in an attempt to avoid taking a sack.

In total, the Seahawks lost 53 percentage points of win probability due to interceptions. It was the area of the game that contributed most to their loss, followed by Kyren Williams rush attempts in a distant second (-22%).

Of note, the Seahawks' win probability actually decreased when Jason Myers kicked a 29-yard field goal in the third quarter when Seattle trailed by five points. The Seahawks had the ball at the 11-yard line with only six yards needed for a first down, but did not keep the offense on the field.

Play Type

Win Probability Lost

Sam Darnold interceptions

-53%

Kyren Williams rush attempts

-22%

Puka Nacua targets

-12%

Zach Charbonnet rush attempts

-10%

Colby Parkinson targets

-6%

AJ Barner failed sneak

-4%

Jason Myers 29-yard field goal

-4%

Cooper Kupp targets

-3%

Penalties

-3%

On the other hand, the Seahawks gained win probability in this game in a variety of ways. Their defense was excellent at defending targets to Davante Adams and carries by Blake Corum, accumulating 30 percentage points on these two play types alone.

Setting the interceptions aside, Seattle's pass offense gained 20 percentage points of win probability throwing to AJ Barner and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Play Type

Win Probability Gained

Davante Adams targets

+18%

Blake Corum rush attempts

+12%

Coby Bryant forced fumble

+11%

AJ Barner targets

+10%

Jaxon Smith-Njigba targets

+10%

AJ Barner successful sneak

+8%

Tyler Higbee targets

+7%

Ken Walker targets

+4%

Kyren Williams targets

+3%

Blake Corum targets

+3%

At a bird's eye view, the Seahakws won in three key areas (passing offense, passing defense, and a forced fumble) and lost in three key areas (rushing offense, rushing defense, and four interceptions). In large part, the Seahawks did better against the Rams defense than the Rams did against the Seahawks defense, but the interceptions of course tilted the game in the Rams' favor.

Play Type

Win Probability Gained/Lost

Seahawks pass offense (excl. interceptions)

+19%

Rams pass offense (excl. fumble)

+13%

Rams fumble

11%

Seahawks rush offense

-9%

Rams rush offense

-10%

Seahawks interceptions

-53%

The Seahawks have four weeks to figure out how to fix the turnover problem against the Rams before they meet again at Lumen Field for a Week 16 rematch, one with potentially huge playoff seeding implications.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold communicates the play call to his teammates before taking the snap.
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold communicates the play call to his teammates before taking the snap. | Sean M. Haffey/GettyImages

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Published
Caelan Thomas
CAELAN THOMAS