All Seahawks

The numbers don't lie - Sam Darnold hasn't been the same since first Rams meeting

Sam Darnold hasn’t looked the same since Week 11. The quarterback who thrived on tight-window throws before facing the Rams is now playing far more cautiously. Thursday's rematch is his chance for redemtion. Is he ready?
Dan Viens|
Nov 16, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams linebacker Jared Verse (8) knocks the ball away from Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) for an incomplete pass during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Nov 16, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams linebacker Jared Verse (8) knocks the ball away from Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) for an incomplete pass during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

All eyes will be on Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold when the Los Angeles Rams invade Lumen Field on Thursday night in a crucial battle between two 11-3 teams vying not only for the NFC West title but possibly the top overall seed in the NFC as well.

The book on Darnold is familiar by now: he's a very good QB capable of filling up the stat sheet, but he struggles against Chris Shula and the Rams defense.

The Seahawks find themselves well-positioned to make a deep playoff run this year, bolstered by arguably the league's best defensive unit - but can Darnold overcome his kryptonite and break through against the Rams, or have the Rams broken him?

A deep look at the numbers suggests it's possible they have.

ESPN analyst Ben Solak drew attention to this today, pointing out the Sam Darnold we've seen since that four-interception week 11 loss to the Rams isn't the same one that was setting the league on fire prior to that.

One of the biggest concerns following Darnold's poor week 11 performance was that he may dial back the aggressiveness for fear of making more mistakes. These metrics offered up by Solak tend to confirm those suspicions.

Before that game against the Rams, Darnold was the best tight-window thrower in football. He had a 106.7 passer rating -- the next closest quarterback was Lamar Jackson at 102.9 on half as many attempts. Darnold completed 54.3% of his passes for a completion percentage over expectation of 21.7%. Darnold's 0.36 EPA per tight window throw led the league.
ESPN analyst Ben Solak

Pulling the lens back even wider, some of the more traditional statistics are also cause for concern. Prior to the first meeting against the Rams, Darnold was completing 75.4 pct of his passes with a TD/INT ratio of 5:1. Since then, the completion percentage has dropped to 62.3 pct with just a 1:1 TD/INT ratio. Meanwhile, his average yards per attempt have plummeted from a league-leading 9.83 pre-Rams to a more pedestrian 7.23 since.

There's so much as stake for Seattle in this matchup, with a division title and the possible top overall seed in the NFC on the line. For Darnold personally, it's a chance to change the narrative about his game and his ceiling.

NFL analyst reveals whether Seahawks will get Rams revenge or not

Seahawks studs and duds from a narrow home win over the Colts

Richard Sherman shares details of Percy Harvin-Golden Tate fight

Odds revealed for critical Seahawks vs. Rams Thursday night game

Published
Dan Viens
DAN VIENS

Dan Viens is the creator and host of the Seahawks Forever YouTube channel, where his film study, analytics breakdowns, live shows, and in-depth interviews with some of the best and brightest from the Seahawks universe have earned a rapidly growing audience of fans. Before building his digital platform, Dan worked as a television sports director and reporter and covered the Seahawks professionally as a beat reporter and columnist for Sports Illustrated, SB Nation, and VOX Media. His work reflects a commitment to thoughtful, balanced analysis—rooted in objective reporting—while still embracing the passion and perspective of a lifelong fan.

Share on XFollow SeahawksForever