Were the Seahawks Simply Unlucky Against the Commanders?

One of the dominant narratives coming out of yesterday’s surprise loss to the Washington Commanders is that the Seattle Seahawks were just plain unlucky.

Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald looks on in the second half against the Arizona Cardinals. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Seattle Seahawks won the first down battle 28-17. They outgained the Commanders 437-258. They averaged 6.8 yards per play to Washington’s 4.0. They won the sack battle 2-0. They even won the redzone battle 80% to 67%, the penalty battle 9-8, and the third down battle 33% to 23%. And yet, they lost on the scoreboard. What can we take away from that?

The Role Of Luck

First, let me be clear. Luck absolutely plays a factor in the NFL. Luck can decide games, alter seasons, and even determine champions. I’m not here to suggest that everything that happens on a football field is earned. And there is some merit to the argument that the Seattle Seahawks were very unlucky yesterday in losing, despite dominating many categories.

Washington Commanders running back Rachaad White (1) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If the above numbers don’t do it for you (which is somewhat understandable given Seattle played from behind most of the game), consider this from this Shawn Syed tweet: The Seahawks success rate on offense yesterday was in the 86th percentile, and their defensive success rate was in the 89th percentile. Losing despite that is improbable.

Understanding The Lessons To Learn

All of this data would indicate that the Seahawks were unlucky to lose yesterday. And I won’t dismiss the NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter, who tweeted yesterday that the Seahawks would be expected to win that game 95% of the time. But my concern would be that, if such a lesson is taken to heart, the team won’t learn from what happened yesterday.

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) reacts after scoring a touchdown in the second half at Northwest Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

And there are things in this game that weren’t just luck. Typically, when a team loses a game where they dominate on the stat sheet, there are three things to look at. One is turnovers, then there are penalties, and finally, special teams. Sure enough, the Seahawks were soundly beaten in two of those categories, and managed to limp to a draw in the third.

Drilling Down

To Seattle’s credit, they had fewer penalties and penalty yards than Washington. However, I’d still argue that eight penalties is too many, and that Washington having a lot of penalties is more understandable due to all the backups they’re playing. Even if you disregard the bogus AJ Finley personal foul in the fourth quarter, it wasn’t a clean game.

Seattle Seahawks punter Michael Dickson (4) against the New England Patriots during Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Special teams, however, were one-sided in favor of Washington. Both teams hit a 57-yard field goal, but the Seahawks had a kick land outside the landing zone at a crucial moment and were outdone on kick returns. Tress Way also had a much better time punting than Michael Dickson, who had one of the worst games of his career. This needs to get better, fast.

And of course, turnovers were massive. While turnovers, by their nature, tend to be somewhat random and sporadic (which contributes to the luck argument), it must be said that Seattle has been a team that gets beaten badly in the turnover category quite frequently in the Mike Macdonald era. At a certain point, it becomes a pattern, and not random variance.

Figuring It Out

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) reacts with wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11). | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

There was some bad luck yesterday. We had an interception bounce off Shy Tuttle’s helmet and into Sonny Styles’s hands, after all. But I would strongly advise against dismissing every element of the loss just because of that. Even if the Seahawks had won yesterday, these problems would still be present, so you may as well control what you can and address them.

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