Texans Have Clear Edge Over Colts in Week 3 Based on Recent History

The Houston Texans have had their fair share of battles with their AFC South rival, the Indianapolis Colts, throughout the past several years.

It's been a matchup that, since the Texans entered the NFL back in 2002, has happened two times in a given season, and three times when these two met in the 2019 AFC Wild Card game.

In terms of the all-time record between both, the Colts have certainly had their way with Houston throughout their 25 years of competing. Indianapolis leads their all-time series 33-15-1, which comes in large part due to the Texans' brutal 1-15 record against them from their inaugural season in 2002 to 2009.

But when looking at the most recent history between the Texans and Colts, that track record will tell you a much different story than what this team was used to in their first few years in the league––because it's actually Houston who has a clear edge heading into their Week 3 contest.

The Texans' Dominant Recent History Against Indianapolis

To find the last Indianapolis victory over the Texans, you have to go all the way back to 2023 when the Colts traveled to Houston and took down C.J. Stroud in what was his first-ever matchup against this team in his rookie season, 20-31.

That was actually the same game where the Colts' then-rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson was taken out of his first-ever NFL game due to injury with a concussion in the first half, and then handed the keys over to Gardner Minshew for the eventual win.

Yet, ever since then, it's been nothing but smooth sailing for Houston against their division rivals.

Jan 4, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) looks for an open receiver during the game against the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Texans have won five straight games against the Colts, sweeping them in their season series two years in a row, and have outscored them by a combined total of 133-112 in those five victories.

Granted, that's an average margin of victory that sits just over four points; a little more than a field goal. So it's not like the Texans are trouncing the Colts every time these teams have seen each other for the past five years. In fact, each of those five wins since 2023 has been within one score.

Last season, the Texans got a look at the Colts twice later in the season, one being a Week 13 win on the road, 16-20, then the second coming in the final week of the regular season against quarterback Riley Leonard, where Houston capped off another sweep, 30-38.

However, even if their past five wins haven't exactly been routs, the Texans certainly do seem to know how to pull out a narrow victory against their division rivals when it counts the most––or at least for as long as Stroud and DeMeco Ryans have been on the scene.

Furthermore, the last time the Colts lost a game in Lucas Oil Stadium––where these two will be facing off this Sunday––came all the way back in 2021 before any of the current roster fixtures we know today were on the roster (except for kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn, of course).

Bottom Line

So that means for this weekend, the Texans could be looking to land their sixth straight win over the Colts in what might also be a defining victory of their season, as that would also allow them to avoid another 0-3 start to the new season.

Recent history does show that Houston, on paper, would be the team to beat here. But at the same time, with an all-time record that sits just over 31% against the Colts, and as Indianapolis also sits with their backs against the wall at 0-3, it'll be hard to count them out from turning back the clock to their old ways in Week 3.

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