NFL Week 3 ATS Picks for Every Game (Bet on Patriots, Cowboys, Rams and Bears to Cover in Marquee Matchups)

Week 3 of the NFL season is upon us, and there are a ton of great matchups between teams with playoff expectations in the 2026 season.

That includes multiple primetime games, with the Denver Broncos taking on the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night and the Chicago Bears hosting the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday.

Injuries to quarterbacks have certainly impacted the odds for Week 3, as Jayden Daniels, Sam Darnold, Caleb Williams and Jaxson Dart are all banged up. Plus, Michael Penix Jr. and Kyler Murray are both set to return for their respective teams this week.

There’s been some movement from where the odds opened up this week, but that’s not going to stop the SI Betting team from sharing a spread pick for each of the 16 games from Thursday to Monday.

Plus, if you’re looking for a best bet for each game (moneyline, spread or total), senior editor Iain MacMillan has you covered in his Road to 272 column where he bets on every game, every week.

Now, let’s take a look at where I’m leaning in this spread picks for Week 3.

NFL Week 3 Spread Picks

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Falcons vs. Packers Spread Pick

Pick: Packers -4.5

Even with Michael Penix Jr. back, I’m not buying this Atlanta offense, which is dead last in the league in EPA/Play this season. Green Bay should win its home opener.

Chargers vs. Bills Spread Pick

Pick: Bills -7

The Chargers are a mess right now, losing badly to Arizona and Las Vegas as home favorites. Now, they have to take on the No. 1 offense in the NFL through two weeks. I’ll take the Bills.

Seahawks vs. Commanders Spread Pick

Pick: Seahawks -7

No Jayden Daniels for Washington has been a problem in recent years (3-7 straight up), and the Seahawks have the No. 4 defense in EPA/Play in 2026.

Jets vs. Lions Spread Pick

Pick: Jets +6.5

The Lions’ secondary is a mess right now, and they’ve allowed 71 points through two weeks. New York is competent on offense with Geno Smith under center, and I think it scores enough to hang around on Sunday.

Chiefs vs. Dolphins Spread Pick

Pick: Chiefs -10.5

The Dolphins are impossible to bet on right now after back-to-back blowout losses to San Francisco and Las Vegas.

Panthers vs. Browns Spread Pick

Pick: Panthers -2.5

Bryce Young has quietly been one of the better quarterbacks in football through two weeks, and Carolina has scored over 30 points in back-to-back games. Deshaun Watson was better in Week 2, but I’m not willing to bet on a performance like that again.

Bengals vs. Steelers Spread Pick

Pick: Bengals -3.5

The Steelers are 31st in EPA/Play and 32nd in offensive success rate through two weeks. This Cincy defense has improved, and the Bengals are by far the better offensive team in this matchup.

Patriots vs. Jaguars Spread Pick

Pick: Patriots +3

I wrote about this game in this week’s Patriots vs. Jaguars betting preview:

The Patriots' defense has been elite, ranking No. 2 in the league in EPA/Play and No. 4 in yards per play allowed, holding Pittsburgh to just three points in Week 2.

New England has allowed just 16 points across two games, and I think a small offensive step forward could lead the Patriots to a win in this matchup.

This line opened with the Patriots as 2.5-point underdogs, yet it has moved in Jacksonville’s favor early in the week. As long as we can get a field goal with New England, I think that’s pretty favorable in what is a toss-up of a game.

Titans vs. Giants Spread Pick

Pick: Titans +3.5

If Jaxson Dart is out, I don’t love either of these teams, so I’ll plug my nose and take the 3.5 points with Cam Ward and Co, who almost upset Philly in Week 2.

Texans vs. Colts Spread Pick

Pick: Texans -2.5

It’s now or never for Houston, as an 0-3 start would be tough to dig out of in the AFC. The Colts’ defense has been too shaky (dead last in EPA/Play) to trust at this price.

Cardinals vs. 49ers Spread Pick

Pick: 49ers -8.5

Arizona came back to earth in Week 2 against Seattle, and we just watched San Fran dismantle a bad Miami team in Week 2.

Vikings vs. Buccaneers Spread Pick

Pick: Bucs +1.5

I think we could see an upset win on Sunday afternoon. Tampa Bay had a weird weather delay in Week 2 and had a bunch of self-inflicted errors in Week 1. Even with Kyle Murray back, I think the Vikings are on upset alert as road favorites.

Ravens vs. Cowboys Spread Pick

Pick: Cowboys +3.5

This should be a high-scoring affair on Sunday, and I don’t love laying points with Baltimore after a bad loss to New Orleans in Week 2. Dak Prescott was terrific against Washington, and he should be able to attack this Ravens secondary.

Raiders vs. Saints Spread Pick

Pick: Saints -3

Tyler Shough and the Saints have shown some serious resilience through two weeks, and I’m willing to bet on them at home against a Raiders team that has overachieved with a 2-0 start.

Rams vs. Broncos Spread Pick

Pick: Rams -2.5

Sean McVay is 26-19 against the spread as a road favorite, and Denver’s offense (27th in EPA/Play) remains a bit of a concern against a Super Bowl contender.

Eagles vs. Bears Spread Pick

Pick: Bears +4.5

Caleb Williams is probably out, but Ben Johnson was 3-0 against the spread as home dog last season and the Eagles have nearly lost to Washington and Tennessee to open the season, going 0-2 against the spread.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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