Texans' Projected Win Total for 2026 Is Just Disrespectful

There's still a few months to go before the Houston Texans officially kick off their 2026 regular season campaign, but it hasn't stopped Vegas from releasing some initial projections for how many wins this team could put together after their previous 12-5 season.

On the surface, you'd expect the Texans' projections to sit pretty highly. After an offseason where multiple starters were added around the roster without many big losses outside of tenured veteran lineman Tytus Howard, the stock around Houston should be trending up more than anything.

But it turns out those Vegas projections aren't quite as bullish as you would think on Houston's chances in 2026.

According to odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, the Texans have a projected total of 9.5 wins for next season; still with the highest number of anyone in the AFC South, but not one of the 10 teams around the league with a projected win total in double digits.

That just feels off––and borderline disrespectful.

The Texans Are Getting Royally Disrespected by Vegas

For as busy and productive the Texans have been this offseason in both upgrading their roster, but keeping their key pieces that made them successful last year intact, seeing Houston drop three games from last year's win total would be pretty shocking.

This defense hasn't lost any pieces that would lead anyone to believe they'll be taking a step back from their elite, near-league-best production from last season. The offense has only seen their protection, and perhaps more importantly, their run game, take major steps forward by adding potentially four new starters across their 11-man unit.

Maybe if the Texans were facing a brutal schedule compared to last year's, then a projected 9.5 wins would add up a bit better.

And really, their schedule isn't a walk in the park, considering they'll have the seventh-toughest SOS based on initial win projections. Especially at the tail end of their season with back-to-back road trips to face the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers, the road to climbing atop the AFC won't exactly be easy.

Our 25th Season schedule is set

🤘 | @Ticketmaster pic.twitter.com/j4O8IXjDtA
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) May 14, 2026

But in all likelihood, their challenges in 2026 probably won't be much taller than what they were faced with in 2025 to get 12 wins in the first place.

The Texans had a brutal 0-3 start that left a giant hole to climb out of from the jump, saw their starting quarterback C.J. Stroud suffer a concussion causing him to be sidelined for three games, and inevitably had to climb back from a 3-5 record after Week 9 all the way to 12-5 with a nine-game win streak.

Sep 15, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans walks the sidelines while coaching against the Chicago Bears in the third quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Houston is destined for better luck this season. Head coach DeMeco Ryans will have the Texans better prepared to come out of the gates hot, and has the personnel to keep their success consistent from September through January, and even more well-rounded than they were before.

Outside of their new roster additions, several young pieces are also bound to see improvement after a full offseason of development.

Wide receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, along with left tackle Aireontae Ersery, stick out as the most prominent names to see a leap in production in their second year pro, and could be key to this offense becoming a much better balancing, complementary force for this dominating defense.

But as long as this defense remains among the top three units in the NFL like they project to be next season, combined with an offense that can propel it to being even just top 20 in scoring around the league, surpassing 9.5 wins shouldn't be a problem.

In fact, anything less than 10, maybe even 11 wins, would be a pretty disappointing outcome, all things considered.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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