Do Teams Really Care About Strength of Schedule?

I wanna talk about a few things here because Everyone's like, I'll schedule release, OK, who cares?

I mean, we have the, the Twitter situation or whatever, the team's releasing the videos and That's fine, no big deal.

But I would argue that, you know, so here's an interesting thing from last year.

We, we, you pull up the strength of schedule from the 2025 season, OK?

And if you had to take a guess, Albert, out of the top 10 easiest schedules in the NFL last year, how many of those teams missed the playoffs?

22, the Miami Dolphins.

Oh, that was a total guess, and, and , and the Dallas Cowboys.

OK.

Here are the rest of the top 10.

Number 1, by one of the largest margins in history, the New England Patriots.

Number 2, the Broncos.

Number 4, the Bears.

5, the Chargers, 6, the Bills, 7, the Eagles, 8, the Packers.

Um, so then you flip that to.

Situations like this where.

So we have the Chiefs in 2025, being the first team in NFL history to have five primetime games over the first eight weeks of the season.

What happened to that team?

They got gassed, they got beat up, and their quarterback tore tore his ACL and missed the rest of the season.

The Vikings.

Had, I think, 5 standalone games in their 1st 7 games, and they had like the trip.

They had a double dip in Europe, double international.

What happened?

Their rookie quarterback freaked out, you know , and, and, and, you know, and I'm not saying this in a mean way, but I think the stage got way too big for him, way too fast, and then you ended up relying on Carson Wentz for a majority of the season, right?

And so, I don't think it's a secret that this stuff matters in a very real way.

I had like an epiphany on it too, like last year because like being here, obviously, you know, and talking about New England a lot on TV and radio, um, I got into a couple of arguments with, uh, with Mike Felger, who's a, he's kind of like the big, biggest personality up here, um, you know, over this.

And he was right.

Um, he, because I said like, well, you know, I kept looking at where they were, and, and Mike Vrabel and that group did such a great job of building the roster up and getting them to level ground at so many different positions where they didn't have gaping holes.

And, you know, so, like I remember saying like, well, there's a cap on how far this team can go.

I'm like, because the, the, that the, the roster just isn't quite there yet, you know what I mean?

Like, isn't, it isn't right where you need it to be.

So I was like, OK, could I see them being like the commanders?

Like, yeah, I could see that, but it's tough to even see them getting to a conference title game because the year before the commanders had a soft schedule and the NFC was pretty soft.

So like they, they, they had like that, that path to the to, to the conference title game.

Whereas like with New England, I, I just looked at it and said, well, the AFC is too deep.

Then they started playing the games, then they kept winning.

Then the other teams got beat up.

Then they got home field in the playoffs.

And then it just took like a break or two, you know, it took, well, and then Bo Nix gets hurt, so they win two home playoff games, right, in which, I mean, against the Chargers, the offensive line issue finally made like they were without both their starting tackles.

In the divisional round, CJ Stroud had like 6 turnovers, right?

And then, and that's not to take anything away from them, but because the schedule had allowed them to get to 14 wins, now they're playing these games at home.

They're playing warm weather teams in New England in January, and then they're really one break away from going to the Super Bowl.

They got that break with Bo Nix's injury, right.

And the Patriots are interesting too, Albert, because I mean, you brought up, you know, Vrabel possibly being made fun of during this anyway, I was wrong about that.

Like I, I was like, well, that'll get them to 9 or 10 wins, but, and it got them to 14, it helped get them to 14 wins, which is a huge credit to them.

It's like, I sort of view it the same as the commanders the year before where like a bunch of things came together for them at once, and these things can happen.

It can't just be the schedule, but the schedule can be a big time like aid in helping you level up in a way that maybe you thought you wouldn't be able to.

And it's in, you know, bringing up the Patriots in particular, and then I have another quiz question for you.

I mean, let's just imagine that the Patriots had the hardest schedule in the NFL last year, OK, and they finish 7 and 9, you know, kind of where everybody thought they were gonna finish before, you know, if you were doing your preseason record projections.

I'm not saying that Vrabel's on the hot seat right now, but like, how differently are the Patriots fans viewing.

The totality of this situation where it looks like, well, I mean, like the easy thing to do, and, and this is gonna come up if they start 1 and 5, you know what I mean, like I, I mean like 100% it's like does the coach have his crap together, you know what I mean, like, you know, and like that would be the question.

And that's gonna come and that's sort of part of it, you know what I mean?

Like that's fair or not, like that's what's gonna come up and that's, that's the way that story is gonna follow them, you know, is that is like, OK, like if you win, then yeah, like it'll, it'll, it'll be in the past and maybe you'll have to see some, you know, signs that fans make at games and stuff, and, you know, like there's that sort of thing that, that, that's gonna happen in the fall, but you'll be OK.

If you're not winning, then, you know, what is that, what does that look like on October 15th, you know, um, what's, what are, what people will be talking about in that scenario is how tight is this operation, you know what I mean?

Is this, is this tied up the way that it needed to be and how much did it cost them in the spring to be dealing with all of this when they're starting to put their team together?

All of those questions, like I think will come up.

Um, and like, and like you said, like, a lot of that stuff.

Isn't coming up as much now because they did do such a good job last year and the schedule was, was a part of helping them get where they were, where, where they wound up getting to.

Exactly, um, now, so out of the top 10 teams, Albert, only 2 of them missed the playoffs.

Out of the bottom 10 teams, how many of them made the playoffs?

How many made it?

So, so, all right, hold on, hold on 10, we already eliminated 8, so that means we only have 6 left, right?

No, no, no, no, hold on, hold on.

Out of the 10 easiest schedules we determined only 2 missed the playoffs, right?

So we have 8, that's 8 playoff teams that are already off the table, 8 out of 22 teams left.

Oh no, 6666 out of 20.

So out of the 10 hardest schedules, I'll go 2, you're right.

So the two teams with the hardest schedule, uh, out of that whole group, the Texans and the Rams made the playoffs.

The Cardinals won 3 games.

The Titans won 3 games.

The Raiders won 2 games.

The Jets won 3 games.

The Colts, uh, fell apart down the stretch.

The Buccaneers fell apart down the stretch.

The Vikings, yeah, and the Vikings.

So, yeah, OK, but.

OK, so Texans and the Rams, right?

Yeah, so I'll just take the Texans.

How incredible in hindsight is their season.

OK, so this is interesting though.

The Texans.

Their last 6.

Their last 6 games were on Sundays.

So their last midweek game was that Thursday game against Buffalo.

They got the Bills, which was an important game, coming off of a game at Tennessee.

So, like, and then they had a Monday night game in week 7, that was coming off of a bye.

So like, there were things that sort of set them up.

Now.

It was kind of a tougher look for them like coming back off the bayou playing the Niners, which is a tough game.

They wound up winning that one actually.

They lost to the Seahawks on the Monday night, but that set up like, so even that like that's a, they had a very difficult schedule, but they were able to get rolling late in the year and they didn't have like some of the turnarounds that you talked about the Chiefs having, right?

Yeah.

And then the Rams, hold on, see this is interesting.

So this is actually kind of like drilling into it, right, um, but the Rams, the 2025 Rams.

Had, um, all right, so.

So the Rams, you give them credit because the Rams did kind of go through.

Like a wonky end where they played.

So they played 7 Sundays in a row coming off of their buy.

before their buy, they only had 1 midweek Thursday game.

Then they played 7 Sundays in a row.

And then their last 3 weeks were Thursday, Monday, Sunday.

So you give them credit for making it through that, but they lost 2 of those 3 games.

So, which, by the way, Cost them home field.

Right.

So, like , they win those games, the NFC championship game is now in.

Inglewood, not Seattle, and maybe the Rams are the ones opening the season on Wednesday night.

In God knows where, right?

Well, no, now they're opening the reason.

Now instead they're opening the season in Australia, right?

Yeah, although that game they would already agreed to go to Australia, so maybe they would, maybe they would have, maybe that, maybe the kickoff game would have been, I don't know, I don't know.

So that would have been tricky, right?

Like, I didn't even think about that.

Like cause what would you have done then if you're the NFL if the Rams won the Super Bowl?

You would, I, I mean, yeah, are you really shipping the Super Bowl champions out to Melbournene first game would be in Australia, right?

And then just kind of lighting because they had already agreed like the Rams were designated a team, I think, way ahead of time, weren't they?

I think so, yeah, yeah.

They had already had like a delegation out there, I think, to check everything out and to, to look into it.

So, let's spin this ahead, Albert, then to 2026, where, now, again, I think it's faulty because teams do improve and they get better.

Right, like the schedules, just, just so we're clear, the strength of schedule numbers that you're going off of right now are based on the 25 season, not the 24 season, right?

So if we were doing this exercise this time last year, like it probably the lists that you just gave me would look different a little bit, but here's what's interesting.

So if, if we took the 2025 schedule using the 2024 strength of schedule.

The Patriots still had the 2nd easiest schedule, the 49ers, the Saints, the Falcons, and the Buffalo Bills.

The Saints and the Falcons because of the division that they're playing in, OK.

But the Saints still had that turnaround.

The Falcons had their best win total in.

What?

A long time, right?

I mean, it was like years, like I think since Dan Quinn was there, right?

Um, they finished 8 and 9, so I do think it's still kind of a useful exercise because when you look at 2026.

Um, the easiest, the number one easiest schedule based on 2025, OK, win percentage is fascinating to me cause it's the Detroit Lions, and the Detroit Lions went into the season before that, OK.

They went into the season before that as the 3rd hardest schedule behind the Giants and the Browns.

So, I think that there's, there's a world where we can legitimize the fact that the Lions' schedule was really hard last year.

They still barely missed the playoffs, and now they have, based on 2025 strength of schedule, the easiest schedule going into this one.

Now, again, here's where it, it all matters because it matters how the NFL stacks it.

And the, and the reason why I think Detroit is in a really cool spot.

It is because they didn't make that marquee upgrade.

Like they didn't go out and sign, you know, AJ Brown this offseason, right?

They didn't go out and get something.

Part of that's because they've drafted so well that there's so many guys, right, but they didn't put themselves in the primetime crosshairs.

So I think what they have is the benefit of, and I don't, I can't remember if they have an international game or not, they do.

They go to Munich.

OK, so they go to Munich.

So they have that speed bump, but they got, and they gotta deal with that.

But other than that, if you have the easiest schedule in the NFL plus a little bit of under the radar after your crash last year, I think that's exactly where you want to be, right?

I mean, you, you really kind of have to love where the Lions are at right now.

I hope the league spares them because Right.

Like, so like, and, and like part of like the part of the whole deal here is you wanna get the divisions that you see as soft, right?

Like what are the soft divisions because each team gets paired one divi with, with one division other than their own in their conference and outside their conference.