Insider has 'a hard time seeing' Sam Darnold back in Minnesota this year

National insiders appear to be split on what the Vikings will do at quarterback this offseason, which suggests that even the team itself may not be totally certain how this thing will play out.

We previously covered NFL Network's Tom Pelissero saying on KFAN radio that the "smart money" is still on Sam Darnold returning to Minnesota. FOX Sports' Jordan Schultz sees it differently.

"I would say most likely, he's played his final game in Minnesota," Schultz said on The Herd. In the caption he posted with the video of the segment, he said he has "a hard time seeing (Darnold) back in Minnesota" and that "J.J. McCarthy is the future."

I believe Sam Darnold will still draw real interest this offseason — and a little competition can quickly drive up his price — but I have a hard time seeing him back in Minnesota.

J.J. McCarthy is the future.

📺 @TheHerd with @colincowherd pic.twitter.com/PcZRBCWp2F
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) January 17, 2025

The first decision the Vikings have to make is whether or not to use the franchise tag on Darnold, which would pay him around $41 million for one year. They could still try to trade him after doing so, but the market there likely isn't what it would've been prior to his poor play over the final two games of the season. If they don't tag him, he'll be a free agent.

Another insider, Pelissero's NFL Network colleague Ian Rapoport, makes a good point that the Vikings proved last offseason they won't re-sign Darnold just to have the comfort of a known commodity.

"One thing we've learned from the Vikings last year, they're not afraid," Rapoport said. "They are not gonna be a team that's gonna say 'What if we don't have (a QB)? We just have to hold onto what we know.' They watched Kirk Cousins walk out the door, ended up being an incredibly smart decision. ... They are not afraid. What we don't know is what they think internally of J.J. McCarthy. If we assume, rehab-wise, he's gonna be OK, we are gonna learn everything we need to know about their young quarterback based on the financial decisions they make on Sam Darnold."

All kinds of factors will be considered by the Vikings as they prepare to make this decision. How do they weigh Darnold's entire season against his two clunkers in the biggest games? What will the market for him be if they let him reach free agency? How confident are they that McCarthy can be ready, physically and mentally, to be their starter eight months from now?

Related: Sam Darnold? J.J. McCarthy? Daniel Jones? Vikings GM talks 2025 QB plans

I personally believe it'll be McCarthy. Part of that is due to Darnold coming up small when the Vikings needed him most. Part of that is due to knowing how high they were on McCarthy before he injured his knee last August. Another significant reason for that belief is the simple math that letting Darnold walk and rolling with McCarthy gives them substantially more available cap space to use on addressing their other needs, which include the interior offensive and defensive lines, the secondary, and running back. The rookie QB contract is a cheat code for roster building.

But who knows? All options still appear to be on the table as the Vikings enter another critical offseason with a decision to make at the sport's most important position.

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