Inside The Vikings

Why the Vikings overpaying slightly for Adam Thielen is worth it

The Vikings had to part with real draft capital to bring Thielen home, but it makes plenty of sense given their situation.
Will Ragatz|
Dec 22, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) reacts to his touchdown catch against the Arizona Cardinals during the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium.
Dec 22, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) reacts to his touchdown catch against the Arizona Cardinals during the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium. | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

In this story:

Minnesota Vikings

Adam Thielen is home. The Vikings struck a deal on Wednesday morning to bring the franchise legend and all-time homegrown underdog story back from the Carolina Panthers.

To make the deal happen after lengthy negotiations with the Panthers, who didn't want to just give Thielen away, the Vikings had to part with some real draft capital. They gave up a 2026 fifth-round pick and a 2027 fourth-rounder to land Thielen, a 2027 fifth, and a conditional 2026 seventh. The Panthers aren't taking on any of the money on the final year of Thielen's contract, while the Vikings are reportedly finalizing a reworked deal for their newest (and oldest) wide receiver.

By various pick value formulas, the trade pieces essentially amount to the Vikings parting with a late fourth-round pick. Because they don't have a 2026 fourth-rounder (they traded it for Cam Robinson last year), the two sides had to get a bit creative.

Is a fourth-round pick a lot to give up for one year of a 35-year-old receiver? Objectively, yes. But there are several reasons why a slight overpay was justified for the Vikings, who are in win-now mode and needed someone like Thielen as immediate help at an important position.

The Vikings will be without Jordan Addison for three games to begin the season. Jalen Nailor may or may not miss time with a hand injury. Rondale Moore is out for the season. Prior to this move, they were looking at the possibility of opening the campaign with guys like Tim Jones and rookie Tai Felton playing alongside Justin Jefferson. Now Thielen, who already knows Kevin O'Connell's offense and has worked out with J.J. McCarthy in the offseason, can step right into the WR2 role across from his good friend Jefferson.

The list of available players who can play receiver at a high level and who wouldn't need much time to get up to speed with O'Connell's complex scheme was a very short one. In fact, Thielen may have been the only name on it. Yes, he's 35, but he caught 151 passes for 1,629 yards and 9 touchdowns in 27 games with the Panthers over the past two seasons. He earned PFF receiving grades above 75 in both seasons and has always had reliable hands over the course of his career.

Adam Thiele
Jan 8, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) celebrates his touchdown against the Chicago Bears during the first half at Soldier Field. | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

The Vikings had to make this move for the sake of both McCarthy and their entire team. This is a roster that is built to contend right away if their 22-year-old first-time starting quarterback is the guy they believe him to be. They've done everything they can to put McCarthy in a position to succeed, and this move is another example of that. They've now given him a reliable possession receiver who they know will be in the right place on his routes and will catch almost every ball in his area. They've also added a season-long upgrade from Nailor at WR3 and raised the floor of their receiver room.

And while the Panthers did well to get back what they did, it's not like the price for the Vikings is insane. This isn't one of those Rick Spielman panic overpay trades for Yannick Ngakoue or Chris Herndon or Kaare Vedvik. The Vikings are giving up next year's fifth-rounder, which could be a late fifth if they get close to their ceiling as a team. In 2027, they're parting with their fourth (which could again be late in the round) for the Panthers' fifth (which might be early in the round if Carolina hasn't improved much in 2026). Presumably, the conditional seventh the Vikings are getting will only translate if Thielen doesn't play much, but that's speculative.

There are different formulas that can attempt to gauge the net value that the Vikings gave up. They involve estimating where the two teams will be picking and the relative value of 2026 picks versus 2027 selections. As mentioned earlier, it seems like the best way to view it is that the Panthers gained a late fourth-rounder in exchange for Thielen.

Here's one way to look at that from a Vikings perspective: They're basically giving up the equivalent of the fourth-round compensatory pick they're projected to land next year for Daniel Jones, which they got by simply bring the current Colts QB into their building for six weeks.

Another thing worth considering, even if this wouldn't have been part of the Vikings' process, is who they've picked in the fourth round over the years. Under Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, it's Jay Ward and Akayleb Evans (as well as the tragic Khyree Jackson situation). If you add in the last seven drafts of the Spielman era, you get Kene Nwangwu, Camryn Bynum, Janarius Robinson, D.J. Wonnum, James Lynch, Troy Dye, Dru Samia, Jalyn Holmes, Jaleel Johnson, Ben Gedeon, Willie Beavers, and T.J. Clemmings. You can sometimes get a Bynum or an Everson Griffen in the fourth round, but the hit rate is pretty low.

If you're someone who constantly bashes Adofo-Mensah's drafting ability and then turns around and gets upset about the trade compensation in this situation, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense. The Vikings still have plenty of projected picks in next year's draft, and they've also shined in the UDFA process.

On paper, the Thielen trade may have been a slight overpay. But given the context of the Vikings' situation, it looks like a move that has a very good chance to be worth it.

More Vikings coverage

Published | Modified
Will Ragatz
WILL RAGATZ

Will Ragatz is a senior writer for Vikings On SI, who also covers the Twins, Timberwolves, Gophers, and other Minnesota teams. He is a credentialed Minnesota Vikings beat reporter, covering the team extensively at practices, games and throughout the NFL draft and free agency period. Ragatz attended Northwestern University, where he studied at the prestigious Medill School of Journalism. During his time as a student, he covered Northwestern Wildcats football and basketball for SB Nation’s Inside NU, eventually serving as co-editor-in-chief in his junior year. In the fall of 2018, Will interned in Sports Illustrated’s newsroom in New York City, where he wrote articles on Major League Baseball, college football, and college basketball for SI.com.

Share on XFollow WillRagatz
Home/News