The Avalanche Are in Trouble—Here’s What NHL History Says About Their Chances of a Comeback

The Golden Knights are ahead 2–0 in the Western Conference finals against the Avalanche. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The Avalanche’s dream season is in peril.

After cruising through the first two rounds of the Stanley Cup playoffs, Colorado finds itself down 2–0 in the Western Conference Final against the Golden Knights, with the series set to shift back to Vegas for Game 3.

The Avs were the best team in hockey all season long. They won the NHL’s Presidents’ Trophy—given to the team that posts the best overall record—after racking up 121 points in a 55-win campaign. No other team in the league had more than 113 points. Colorado had the best offense in the NHL, averaging 3.63 goals per game, while also sporting the league’s best defense, surrendering an average of just 2.40 goals per game.

But with their backs against the wall versus the Golden Knights, the Avalanche find themselves in a position that, historically, has not been a favorable one. In Stanley Cup playoffs history, Presidents’ Trophy-winning teams that have gone down 2–0 in a best-of-seven series have advanced just once in 11 tries.

It’s not all bad news, however. The lone team that pulled off the miracle comeback? The 1998-99 Colorado Avalanche, who overcame a 2–0 deficit in the Western Conference semifinals against the Red Wings and won the next four games to clinch their place in the conference finals.

Overall, playoff teams that lose the first two games of a best-of-seven series have gone on to win just 13.7% of those series, according to the NHL’s official records. They have a collective series record of 58–365. Teams that go down 3–0 have won the series just four times in 217 instances.

The Avs dropped Game 1 by a score of 4–2, before losing 3–1 in Game 2. Prior to the opening two games of the conference final, Colorado had only been held to two or fewer goals in three of its nine postseason games, and it won two of those games.

It’s impossible to deny how significant the absence of Cale Makar has been for the Avs thus far into the series. Makar is the NHL’s best defenseman and Colorado’s most important player. He was a +32 during the regular season while skating 24:51 per night. He was a +5 in the Avs’ first nine playoff games before he was sidelined by the injury he sustained in the conference semifinals against the Wild.

Coach Jared Bednar spoke on Makar’s injury and suggested that it was up to the defenseman whether or not he’d return for Game 3 on Sunday.

“It’s gonna be Cale’s decision on if he’s coming back. He’s doing all the work. I don’t make that decision for him,” Bednar said on Saturday.

If Makar can’t suit up on Sunday night, it could spell trouble for the Avs. With the Golden Knights possessing all the momentum, Colorado will need to steal a win in Vegas if it wants to keep this series going. If they win Sunday night, the Avs would be trailing 2–1 in the series. Historically, teams trailing 2–1 have won 30.9% of series. Teams trailing 3–1 have won the series just 8.9% of the time.

It’s do or die time for the Avalanche, and they will have to find a way to keep Vegas off the scoreboard with or without Makar in the lineup.

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