Rory McIlroy Trending Down in Open Championship Prediction Markets

Not everything is looking up for Rory McIlroy ahead of the Open Championship, with his price trending down on Kalshi. Rory remains in contention with the second-best price, but is now closer to Tommy Fleetwood in third than he is to Scottie Scheffler in first.

Several factors are driving Rory’s price lower on Kalshi’s Open Championship market, including outside noise.

2026 Open Championship Winner - Kalshi

Scottie Scheffler 12%
Rory McIlroy 7.9%
Tommy Fleetwood 5.4%
Matt Fitzpatrick 5.3%

The only positive about Rory’s negative shift is that more value is added to his price. At a $10 trade, $108.86 is made in profit if Rory overcomes the dip.

Trending down

Rory’s price has slid steadily all week. His price was 11% on July 9 and remained there until July 12 before dropping to 9%. Just two days later, he dropped to 8% and now 7% after that at the time of writing.

Post major win drought

The highlight of McIlroy’s 2026 campaign is without a doubt his second straight win at the Masters. Since then, he has fallen off his usual standard.

In the five tournaments he’s played in since, he finished T19 at the Truist Championship, T7 at the PGA Championship, T12 at the Memorial Tournament, T32 at the U.S. Open, and is coming off a T7 finish at the Scottish Open.

Looking back to previous seasons, this is a trend for Rory following a tournament win. Following his win at the 2025 Masters, he failed to win another tournament in 10 appearances and finished outside of the top-10 six times.

A figure close to McIlroy, his ex-agent Andrew Chandler, spoke out, saying that McIlroy’s level in play has dropped since winning his career Grand Slam in 2025.

“You've got to think the spark has gone out of him. There always seems to be a drop off for Rory now that he's won the career slam.”

The Open Championship begins Thursday, July 16, and runs until Sunday, July 19, at Royal Birkdale.

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