2026 World Cup: Dark Horse Contenders—Ranked

An expanded World Cup means there’s an array of outsiders capable of enjoying deep runs.

Erling Haaland will lead Norway into their first World Cup of the 21st century. | Fredrik Varfjell/NTB/AFP/Getty Images

A ’dark horse’ is defined by Oxford Languages as “a candidate or competitor about whom little is known but who unexpectedly wins or succeeds.”

In this context, we’re talking about a soccer nation, and where better for an underdog to emerge?

The FIFA World Cup has conjured an array of heroic stories since its inception almost a century ago, with one-off shocks bettered by deep tournament runs that capture hearts and minds across the globe.

Rarely does a tournament go by without an underdog running amok. Four years ago in Qatar, Morocco became the first African nation to reach the semifinals, having beaten Belgium and Portugal along the way.

So, who will be this year’s Morocco? An expanded tournament means we’ve had to consider more contenders than ever, and here is Sports Illustrated’s 10 leading dark horse contenders for the 2026 World Cup.

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10. Mexico

The co-hosts have a kind group. | Omar Vega/Getty Images

Qatar endured a swift exit in 2022, but World Cup hosts tend to thrive off a feverish atmosphere and build an unwavering sense of momentum after early successes.

South Korea, Germany and Russia are among the hosts to exceed pre-tournament expectations this century, and we‘re bound for at least one of the three to ignite the wildest of dreams this summer.

Mexico is a reliable World Cup participant, having reached the round of 16 in each of the previous seven tournaments before 2022. They failed to make the knockouts four years ago, having succumbed to some Lionel Messi magic on Matchday 2.

Javier Aguirre’s team has been drawn into a manageable Group B, which it should top, but the expansion of the tournament means there’s an extra round to play before its preferred end destination.

It’s hard to grasp what ’success’ would look like for Mexico, given its modern World Cup steadiness. A first quarterfinal berth since 1986 isn‘t inconceivable, especially if 17-year-old Gilberto Mora takes to the world stage like a fish to water.

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9. Scotland

Scotland impressively topped its qualifying group. | ANDY BUCHANAN/AFP/Getty Images

Scotland’s qualifying campaign looks slightly less impressive, given that Denmark was subsequently beaten by Czechia in the playoffs to qualify.

Moreover, Steve Clarke’s side has mightily underwhelmed at back-to-back European Championships, suffering limp group stage exits in both.

But World Cup fever is set to sweep over the Tartan Army this summer. Scott McTominay’s got a Neapolitan twang, and an experienced group has surely learned from less successful major tournament travails.

Clarke is unlikely to make the same mistake Ally MacLeod did in 1978 and delude a nation into believing they’re going to win the thing, but Scotland is a tightly-knit squad capable of ruffling feathers in North America.

Watch out, Brazil.

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8. USMNT

Mauricio Pochettino wants to lead the USMNT beyond the World Cup. | Dorton/ISI Photos/USSF/Getty Images

O.K., maybe we’ve been suckered into the hosts a little too much. Optimism isn’t exactly rife among American supporters heading into this summer’s tournament, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Reduced expectations may be what Mauricio Pochettino’s side requires to galvanise a still-emerging soccer nation.

A string of good results against strong opposition to end 2025 showed that Pochettino’s USMNT is capable, with the Argentine rewarded for trusting those in form rather than the biggest names.

Back-to-back defeats in March, including a heavy 5–2 defeat to Belgium, proved that the USMNT isn’t exactly where it wants to be ahead of a home tournament, but Group D looks tame on paper.

With momentum on its side after a strong group stage showing, Pochettino may fancy his chances of guiding the USMNT to its first World Cup quarterfinal since 2002, with Belgium potentially standing in its way in the last 16.

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7. Türkiye

Tùrkiye has been perennial dark horses at recent major tournaments. | Alex Nicodim/NurPhoto/Getty Images

We’re expressing some caution over Türkiye, as it tends to burn whoever backs it as a dark horse entering a major tournament.

Much of that trauma derives from Euro 2020, where the much-fancied Türkiye was nothing short of hopeless.

Vincenzo Montella’s side was much improved four years later in Germany, losing to the Netherlands in the quarterfinals, and this team is going to be desperate to shine on the big stage after a 24-year wait.

Türkiye was a semifinalist on its previous World Cup venture in the Far East, and the nation’s current crop of blossoming young attacking talent has the potential to sparkle this summer. Real Madrid’s Arda Güler is the creative heartbeat, while Juventus’ Kenan Yıldız is a destructive finisher when he’s hot.

Security at the back may be an issue, but Montella boasts midfield controllers capable of keeping the opposition at arm’s length.

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6. Austria

Austria is a pressing juggernaut. | Severin Aichbauer/SEPA.Media /Getty Images

Austria’s promising Euro 2024 campaign was cut short by the aforementioned Turks, but Ralf Rangnick’s pressing juggernaut didn’t let that disappointment ruminate during World Cup qualifying.

Soccer’s intellectual home has produced some of the finest outfits never to lift the Jules Rimet trophy, and despite a stellar renaissance with Rangnick at the helm, it’d be an all-timer upset if it was to win this summer’s tournament.

It lacks the superstar talent of the major nations, but Austria’s club-like cohesiveness out of possession is bound to take it far in North America. You do wonder, though, whether the stifling conditions could eventually inhibit Rangnick’s game model.

A lack of game-breaking talent, despite Christoph Baumgartner’s excellent form in the Bundesliga, also limits its ceiling.

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5. Colombia

Running it back to 2014. | Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

We rate Colombia as one of the 10 favorites to win the 2026 World Cup, so you could argue that the South Americans aren’t exactly the sneakiest of dark horses.

We’ll compromise by slipping Colombia into the middle of the pack.

There are generations of supporters who’ll remember what happened the last time Colombia played at a World Cup hosted on North American soil.
Expectations were sky-high after a 5–0 victory over Argentina helped Maturina’s dazzling outfit qualify for USA ’94, with Pelé even touting the team as potential world champions.

However, the euphoric summer that was projected evolved into tragedy after a group-stage exit, as defender Andrés Escobar was murdered in the aftermath.

More than 30 years on, there may be a lingering sense of unfinished business for Colombia in the United States.

2014’s unforgettable protagonist, James Rodríguez, is still lurking, and the veteran playmaker is complemented by an exuberant attack comprising Bayern Munich’s Luis Díaz and Sporting CP sharpshooter Luis Suárez.

Colombia is bound to emerge as the neutral’s favorite.

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4. Senegal

Senegal’s latest AFCON success was taken away. | Ulrik Pedersen/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Senegal may no longer officially be recognised as the winner of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, but few back home will care about the legalities. They’ve enjoyed the celebrations, and now the West African nation has the chance to leave its mark on the global stage.

It’s going to take a mammoth effort from the Sadio Mané-led outfit, given that it has been drawn alongside France and Norway in the widely selected ’Group of Death.’

Senegal stunned in 2002 by reaching the quarterfinals on debut, and was most recently knocked out in the round of 16 by England. This team hasn’t drastically evolved since 2022, but an emerging young core is beginning to coalesce around a reliable group of seasoned stars.

There’s a healthy balance of physicality and technical mastery within Aliou Cissé’s ranks, and don’t be surprised if the players stun a favorite or two this summer.

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3. Norway

Norway is going to be a popular dark horse pick. | ALBERTO PIZZOLI/AFP/Getty Images

A pair of emphatic victories over Italy, absent from the World Cup for the third consecutive tournament, during its first successful qualifying campaign of the 21st century, means Norway is bound to be a popular dark horse pick.

Erling Haaland’s inevitability means this team will have a chance in most of its outings this summer, and Haaland‘s supporting cast can’t be overlooked. There are alternative options in attack, like Atlético Madrid’s ’super sub’ Alexander Sørloth, while RB Leipzig’s explosive winger Antonio Nusa is capable of the spectacular.

It will hope to have midfield heartbeat Martin Ødegaard purring alongside the steady Sander Berge, with midfield balance key to Ståle Solbakken‘s 4-4-2.

The fact that it’s such an obvious dark horse choice should leave Norway supporters a little uneasy, with a tough Group I meaning there’s absolutely no guarantee they’ll reach the knockout stages.

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2. Ecuador

Ecuador is an outstanding defensive team. | Stefan Koops/EYE4IMAGES/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Ecuador certainly isn’t as glamorous as some of its CONMEBOL neighbours. Argentina is the holder, Brazil will always draw attention and there’s a sense of romance developing around this Colombian team.

Ecuador is a gritty and robust unit bereft of familiar names in attack. However, its qualifying campaign was notably impressive, conceding just five goals in 18 games.

The team draws a lot of games, but no one has beaten it since the start of 2025. The Netherlands and Morocco, two potential outsiders this summer, were held to 1–1 draws in March.

There’s Premier League talent in Moisés Caicedo and Piero Hincapié leading the way, but Paris Saint-Germain’s Willian Pacho is developing into the most decorated of Sebastián Beccacece’s squad.

This may be Ecuador’s finest-ever team, but you do fear that its fate in the knockout stages will likely rest on the lottery of the penalty shootout.

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1. Japan

Japan beat England in March. | Koji Watanabe/Getty Images

Japan is primed to upset the odds this summer, and it’ll look really good doing so, too—not just because of the kits!

There’s a synergy to Japan’s play that renders them similar to a cohesive club outfit, with efficient usage of possession complemented by a modern approach without it.

Historically, Japanese soccer teams have been defensively sound but often reliant on one magician in attack. For a while, that was Shunsuke Nakamura, who’ll serve as Hajime Moriyasu’s assistant in North America. Moriyasu has been in charge since 2018, and there’s a sense that the culmination of his tenure could arrive at his second World Cup.

The Blue Samurai is not defined by its individuals, but rather its collective makeup. Kaoru Mitoma is the game-changing cog of a well-oiled machine, and Ayase Ueda is one of Europe’s leading goalscorers this season.

It’s easy to envisage this Japan team joining the likes of ’94 Bulgaria, ’02 Türkiye and ’22 Morocco as one of the most memorable World Cup dark horses.

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