2026 World Cup Predicted Bracket: Messi Heartbreak and Spain Miss Out on Final

No player has ever won more World Cups than Pelé, yet few have made more spectacularly incorrect and high profile predictions about soccer’s grandest stage.

The Brazil legend infamously tipped an African nation to win a World Cup in the 20th century (none got past the quarterfinals) while Colombia (1994) and Spain (1998) both failed to get out of their groups in a year they were preemptively crowned champions. The one time Pelé went with a negative bet—tipping Brazil to crash out in the first round of 2002—the Seleção won the whole thing.

Pelé is not alone in finding it difficult to predict a defiantly random sport. As the legendary Liverpool boss Jürgen Klopp once surmised: “In my opinion, football is the game where it’s most easy to win against the better teams.”

It is hard to predict, unless you’re Michael Jackson. The King of Pop boasted a 100% success rate of recorded predictions, correctly forecasting that “England is gonna win, yeah?” when quizzed on the outcome of the Three Lions’ 1998 World Cup last-16 tie with Denmark.

Without the resource of Jackson to call upon, we have had to lean upon FIFA’s world rankings to establish a best guess at what may unfold at this summer’s World Cup.

Group Stage

Winners and runners-up

Brazil goal — Brazil has an array of attacking talent. | Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire/Getty Images.

For the first time there will be as many as 12 different groups. There were only 13 participants at the first World Cup in Uruguay.

Many of the 24 group winners and runners-up appear straightforward—“appear” being the operative word—yet picking a superior side out of Brazil and Morocco is a challenge.

Only two spots in FIFA’s rankings separate these continental powerhouses who are both littered with talent and dysfunction. Brazil is still searching for its best formation under Carlo Ancelotti, who has the controversy of snubbing or selecting Neymar Jr. constantly dangling over his head.

At least there is a clear figurehead of the Seleção. Morocco only appointed Mohamed Ouahbi in March after Walid Regragui stepped down following the team’s failure to claim the African Cup of Nations on home soil. In a bittersweet twist for Regragui, Morocco has since been awarded the title.

Intriguingly, co-hosts USMNT and Mexico are favorites to qualify top of their respective groups while Canada could very well come second above Qatar and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Group	Projected Winner (FIFA Ranking)	Projected Runner-up (FIFA Ranking)
A	Mexico (15)	South Korea (25)
B	Switzerland (19)	Canada (30)
C	Brazil (6)	Morocco (8)
D	USMNT (16)	Türkiye (22)
E	Germany (10)	Ecuador (23)
F	Netherlands (7)	Japan (18)
G	Belgium (9)	Iran (21)
H	Spain (2)	Uruguay (17)
I	France (1)	Senegal (14)
J	Argentina (3)	Austria (24)
K	Portugal (5)	Colombia (13)
L	England (4)	Croatia (11)

Best third-place teams

Erling Haaland — Haaland is ready to set the World Cup alight. | IMAGO/aal.photo

For the first time since 1994, when the World Cup was last hosted by the United States, third in the group could still be enough to make it into the knockouts. Of the 12 bronze medallists, the eight teams with the best record from their group games will advance. One win, or even three draws, will likely be enough.

Norway has been handed a tough first round with France and Senegal but should find a way above Iraq. However, in the eyes of star striker Erling Haaland, just getting to the tournament is a triumph. “If we would qualify for the World Cup, it would be like another big nation winning it,” the Manchester City talisman predicted before Norway’s spot had been secured.

Fellow Premier League forwards Viktor Gyökeres and Mohamed Salah may also fire Sweden and Egypt respectively into the knockouts, which is also where Côte d’Ivoire are hoping to go for the first time in its entire history. Where the likes of Yaya Touré and Didier Drogba have failed, Emerse Faé’s 2023 AFCON champions hope to triumph.

Group	Team	FIFA Ranking
A	Czechia	41
D	Australia	27
E	Côte d’Ivoire	34
F	Sweden	38
G	Egypt	29
I	Norway	31
J	Algeria	28
L	Panama	33

Eliminated nations

Scotland have never got past the group stage of a major tournament. | Getty/Craig Williamson

Two-thirds of the nations which start the competition will successfully navigate the group stages, making it harder to miss out on the knockouts than qualify. Scotland would argue otherwise.

The proud nation has never once made it past the first round of a men’s international competition, crashing out in the group stage of eight World Cups and four European Championships. After finding itself paired with Brazil and Morocco in this year’s first round, the Scots are realistically aiming for third-place. Given the strength of the other nations likely to finish third, it will be a challenge for Scotland to sneak through.

The only other European side expected to miss out on the knockouts is Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, as they proved against Wales and Italy in the playoffs, count out Edin Džeko and Co. at your own peril.

First-time qualifiers Curaçao, Cabo Verde, Uzbekistan and Jordan are all set for early exits.

Group	Group Stage Finish	Nation (FIFA Ranking)
B	3	Qatar (55)
C	3	Scotland (43)
H	3	Saudi Arabia (61)
K	3	DR Congo (46)
A	4	South Africa (60)
B	4	Bosnia and Herzegovina (65)
C	4	Haiti (83)
D	4	Paraguay (40)
E	4	Curaçao (82)
F	4	Tunisia (44)
G	4	New Zealand (85)
H	4	Cabo Verde (69)
I	4	Iraq (57)
J	4	Jordan (63)
K	4	Uzbekistan (50)
L	4	Ghana (74)

Round of 32

World Cup final repeat

Lionel Messi could come up against a historic foe. | Facundo Morales/NurPhoto/Getty Images

In a fitting tribute to the Europa League’s heritage, this World Cup will have a round of 32. The slate of fixtures potentially on offer can change dramatically based on just one result, thanks to the complicated wrinkle of third-place qualifiers.

However, in the entirely likely scenario of Argentina winning its group and Uruguay finishing second behind Spain, the two South American rivals will face off in arguably the standout tie of the round.

This repeat of the first-ever World Cup final is drenched in history. Despite boasting a wildly inferior population, Uruguay has forever punched above its weight on the world stage, claiming two world titles (the first at Argentina’s expense) and 15 Copas América, only one fewer than its hated neighbor. As the national team’s former manager Ondino Viera once mused: “Other countries have their history. Uruguay has its football.”

The standout result under current coach Marcelo Bielsa was a convincing 2–0 victory over Argentina in Buenos Aires during World Cup qualification. “We never felt comfortable,” Lionel Messi sheepishly admitted.

Date	Fixture	Venue
June 28, 2026	South Korea vs. Canada	SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
June 29, 2026	Brazil vs. Japan	NRG Stadium, Houston
June 29, 2026	Germany vs. Australia	Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
June 29, 2026	Netherlands vs. Morocco	Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe
June 30, 2026	Ecuador vs. Senegal	AT&T Stadium, Arlington
June 30, 2026	France vs. Sweden	MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
June 30, 2026	Mexico vs. Côte d’Ivoire	Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
July 1, 2026	England vs. Norway	Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
July 1, 2026	Belgium vs. Czechia	Lumen Field, Seattle
July 1, 2026	USMNT vs. Algeria	Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
July 2, 2026	Spain vs. Austria	SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
July 2, 2026	Colombia vs. Croatia	BMO Field, Toronto
July 2, 2026	Switzerland vs. Egypt	BC Place, Vancouver
July 3, 2026	Türkiye vs. Iran	AT&T Stadium, Arlington
July 3, 2026	Argentina vs. Uruguay	Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
July 3, 2026	Portugal vs. Panama	Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

Round of 16

European powers clash

Casemiro, Kylian Mbappé — Kylian Mbappé is France’s captain. | Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe/Getty Images

FIFA president Gianni Infantino has repeatedly billed the World Cup as “104 Super Bowls.” While many of the clashes between lesser vaunted nations in barren stadiums under a scorching summer sun will not feel like the greatest show the NFL can offer, a potential last-16 tie between Germany and France in Philadelphia has the makings of a spectacle to savor.

Germany is somehow both overrated and underrated heading into this tournament. The four-time champion has history forever on its side, but successive group-stage eliminations also bear some scrutiny. There’s no doubt that Julian Nagelsmann has some talented players at his disposal, yet he can’t boast the caliber of France’s forward line.

It would be hard to argue against Lucas Hernández’s claim that his nation boasts “the best attack in the world.” Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise, Désiré Doué and the litany of unmentioned alternatives threaten to tear any team apart this summer.

Date	Fixture	Venue
July 4, 2026	South Korea vs. Netherlands	NRG Stadium, Houston
July 4, 2026	Germany vs. France	Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
July 5, 2026	Brazil vs. Senegal	MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
July 5, 2026	Mexico vs. England	Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
July 6, 2026	Croatia vs. Spain	AT&T Stadium, Arlington
July 6, 2026	USMNT vs. Belgium	Lumen Field, Seattle
July 7, 2026	Argentina vs. Iran	Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
July 7, 2026	Switzerland vs. Portugal	BC Place, Vancouver

Quarterfinals

Messi vs. Ronaldo

Lionel Messi (left) and Cristiano Ronaldo. — Lionel Messi (left) and Cristiano Ronaldo have never met at a World Cup. | Juan Manuel Baez/NurPhoto/Tim Clayton/Getty Images

The clash which everyone wants to happen (perhaps apart from the protagonists) can only end in an anticlimax. By the time Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo line up against one another in this theoretical quarterfinal, they will have a combined age of 80.

The two greatest players of their generation have faced off on 36 previous occasions, with Messi nabbing 22 goals to Ronaldo’s 21. Yet, most of these clashes came during their time on either side of Spanish soccer’s greatest divide while both were at the peak of their powers for Barcelona and Real Madrid.

A decade later, the spark may not still be there.

Date	Fixture	Venue
July 9, 2026	France vs. Netherlands	Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
July 10, 2026	Spain vs. Belgium	SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
July 11, 2026	Brazil vs. England	Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
July 11, 2026	Argentina vs. Portugal	Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

Semifinals

France vs. Spain

Lamine Yamal — Spain arguably boast the world’s best soccer player. | Ivan Terron/Europa Press/Getty Images

This potential clash between France and Spain threatens to capture the overriding debate of this year in soccer: style vs. substance. Both nations are burdened with scores of star players, yet while Didier Deschamps’s back-to-back World Cup finalists tend to battle and scrap its way to glory by any means necessary, Luis de la Fuente harnessed his talent into a stunning collective en route to European glory in 2024.

Not that the Basque boss subscribes to that theory.

“I think we are an enjoyable team,” De la Fuente conceded before taking on France in the Euro 2024 semifinal, “but here it is all about winning.” Spain’s entertainers duly got the job done in Germany, yet they will not be favorites should they face off with this new iteration of France again in Arlington this summer.

England vs. Argentina

Encounters between England and Argentina are scarcely conducted in isolation. The weight of history lies heavy on the shoulders of a game with deep roots in sport and politics.

For Lionel Scaloni, England also represents a definitive turning point in his own personal history.

Argentina’s World Cup winning manager called London home for six months during a half-season loan at West Ham United. Scaloni’s final game for the club was the 2006 FA Cup final, which saw his half-hearted clearance lead to a staggering, stoppage-time equalizer from Liverpool’s Steven Gerrard. The Hammers would go on to lose that final and Scaloni’s loan wasn’t made permanent. Ultimately, it all worked out pretty well.

“That changed my life,” Scaloni would later reflect. “I went to Mallorca, and that’s where I met my wife. These are things I believe are destined.” A return to the World Cup final could be part of that destiny.

Third-Place Playoff

Spain vs. England

Luis de la Fuente has already earned one big win over England. | Dennis Agyeman / AFP7 via Getty Images

The game no one wants to play could feasibly be a repeat of the 2024 European Championship final. England notably lost that showpiece event, much like its previous World Cup third-place playoffs; in both 2018 and 1990, the Three Lions missed out on a podium finish.

Spain has never had the dubious honor of suffering through this fixture.

Final

France vs. Argentina

France national team players celebrate — France feels positive about its chances. | Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

Four years on, it all happens again. But with a new outcome.

Argentina narrowly had the edge over France in arguably the greatest World Cup final of all time in 2022. After suffering a nut-and-bolt dismantling, the 2018 champions rallied to force extra time and penalties thanks to Mbappé’s hat-trick. However, Messi’s side are no longer favorites to retain its crown.

France snuck into top spot in FIFA’s world rankings on the eve of the tournament but you won’t find Deschamps bragging about his nation’s aspirations. “We will need everything to be stronger than the others,” former World Cup-winning captain and manager warned. “I won’t hide and say that we aren’t one of the teams that can be world champions, but there are between eight and 10 teams that can say that.”

Deschamps urged against “shouting, ‘We’re the best, we’re the strongest’ from the rooftops.” As he recalled, “By experience, it isn’t when a French sportsman is feeling comfortable that they are better.”