Five Favorites to Win the 2026 MLS Cup

The 2026 MLS regular season is coming down to wire, with most teams having four games left to battle above the playoff line.

This postseason will keep the system used since 2023: nine teams in each conference, with the eighth- and ninth-place finishers playing a one-game Wild Card match to determine who advances to face the top seed in the first round’s best-of-three series.

While some teams have thrived from the first kick of a ball back in February, others have adjusted and improved throughout the lengthy campaign. Now with just a few weeks left to go, it’s becoming clear which teams are the true contenders, most likely to hoist the MLS Cup on Dec. 15.

Here, Sports Illustrated ranks the five favorites to capture glory.

5. Philadelphia Union

Cavan Sullivan has the Philadelphia Union in contention for MLS Cup. | Michael Reaves/Getty Images

The Philadelphia Union were at the bottom of the MLS table heading into the World Cup break.

Interim manager Ryan Richter has turned things around in miraculous fashion, and the team sits sixth in the Eastern Conference with four games to go, enjoying a 15-game unbeaten run.

The core of the project has been the trust in young players. Cavan Sullivan has taken on increased responsibility and is up to seven goals and 14 assists as a 17-year-old, breaking Alphonso Davies’s 2018 record for the most goal contributions as a teenager in a single season with 21. At the same time, 19-year-old towering center back Neil Pierre has proven to be a key defensive piece, while 20-year-old right back Frankie Westfield has made immense improvements.

Beyond the young talent, midfielder Danley Jean Jacques and goalkeeper Andre Blake continue to play key roles in Richter’s setup. Meanwhile, the attacking partnership of Bruno Damiani and Milan Iloski has linked up for 31 goals.

The Union have found an approach that works and seems nearly unstoppable these days, peaking perfectly for the postseason and potentially putting themselves in position for a coveted top-four spot in the Eastern Conference. However, with both Miami and Nashville standing in their way, reaching the MLS Cup could be a step too far for the starlets.

4. St. Louis CITY SC

Rafael Navarro has elevated St. Louis CITY SC into true MLS Cup contention. | Bill Barrett/ISI Photos/Getty Images

St. Louis CITY SC completely rebuilt their core midseason, and it’s worked. Manager Yoann Damet’s men are bona fide MLS Cup contenders entering the final stages of the season, especially after winning the U.S. Open Cup final midweek, the club’s first-ever trophy.

While its recent 19-game undefeated run didn't set the record for the longest MLS regular-season run, it showed how quickly the team has adjusted to a key group highlighted by Carlo Holse and Rafael Navarro, alongside a mainstay between the sticks in Roman Bürki. Navarro has been the biggest difference-maker, though, racking up eight goals and three assists in eight games since coming over from the Colorado Rapids on a $12 million fee.

With the consistency of results and the dominance shown through the recent run, St. Louis have elevated themselves from a sleeper pick ahead of the season to a true challenger, but will have to navigate a competitive Western Conference and avoid any hiccups that would test their depth.

3. Inter Miami

messi smiling — Lionel Messi's Inter Miami are the defending MLS Cup champions. | ISI Photos via Getty Images

Inter Miami are the defending champions, but haven’t looked like MLS Cup-quality for much of the season, including a spell with just one win in 10 games. Now on their third manager, Kily González, they seem to have hit their stride and could be ready to peak at the perfect time in the playoffs.

Lionel Messi remains the be-all-end-all factor of Inter Miami’s entire project. He is the favorite to capture a third-straight MLS MVP title and looks likely to defend his Golden Boot title as well. His influence has been unmatched, especially as he grows more comfortable under González.

While Messi will determine the team’s fate, 2025 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year Dayne St. Clair has regained his confidence between the sticks in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Germán Berterame has improved—all while Luis Suárez defies reason as a consistent offensive threat with 15 goals in 26 games at nearly 40 years old.

Miami won’t have it easy returning to the MLS Cup, likely having to take down Nashville—the team that knocked them out of the Concacaf Champions Cup—but they'd be favored if they reach that point.

2. Vancouver Whitecaps

Thomas Müller, Ryan Gauld, Brian White, Vancouver Whitecaps — Thomas Müller (center) has played alongside Ryan Gauld in 2026, unlike for most of 2025. | Rich Lam/Getty Images

The defining decision of the Vancouver Whitecaps’ season was selling USMNT midfielder Seabtian Berhalter to Middlesbrough for $2 million after his starring performance at the World Cup. Since then, the 2025 MLS Cup finalists have struggled to match the dominance and consistency they showed throughout the first half of the season. Although rest assured, Whitecaps fans, this is still a very good team and a clear-cut favorite to win the Western Conference.

While the club may have just two wins in its last six games, it remains on pace for a better points total than the 2025 campaign, the club’s best regular-season performance. The back end has conceded just 31 goals in 30 games, second only to Nashville SC among all teams. Brian White has continued to lead the offensive charge with 17 goals in 28 games, despite a dip in recent form.

The most significant difference from the Berhalter-led 2025 and early stages of 2026 has been the return of Scottish Designated Player Ryan Gauld. Injured for most of the 2025 season, Gauld has four goals and two assists this year and has made significant strides in the second half of the campaign, particularly when Thomas Müller has not been fully fit.

Even still, Müller has nine goals and eight assists of his own, and manager Jesper Sørensen is ensuring his German star is healthy for the playoffs. The Whitecaps should be confident in making a run toward another MLS Cup appearance.

1. Nashville SC

Hany Mukhtar (right) and Sam Surridge (left) have been key pieces in Nashville SC's remarkable campaign. | Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images

Nashville SC have been the top team in MLS all season and are still on pace to set the all-time regular-season points record, set by Inter Miami’s 74 points just two seasons ago. While the Herons flamed out in the first round of the MLS Cup playoffs that year, Nashville are better equipped for a lengthy run all the way to the title.

The team's core remains the attack, with Hany Mukhtar’s goal-creation ability standing out even more than in his 2022 MLS MVP campaign. At the same time, Sam Surridge has maintained his stellar scoring rate, with 17 goals in 24 games, while enjoying more support than he did in last season’s 25-goal campaign. Add in Cristian Espinoza’s playmaking and Elias Saad’s transition ability, and it’s easy to see why they’ve ranked among the league’s best attacking powers all season.

Unlike some past Supporters’ Shield winners, though, Nashville haven’t sacrificed defensive solidity. Through 30 games, they have conceded just 23 goals, and Brian Schwake’s impressive goalkeeping has come up clutch when an opponent breaks through the likes of Reid Baker-Whiting and Andy Nájar on the backline.

With home advantage expected through the postseason, it feels like MLS Cup or bust for Nashville, as they look to become the first team since LAFC in 2022 to win both the Shield and MLS Cup in the same year.

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