FIFA ‘Want’ to Make Major Penalty Shootout Rule Change for 2026 World Cup

In a World Cup defined by dramatic rule changes, FIFA have another one planned for the knockout stages.

Kylian Mbappé could be one of many World Cup captains impacted. | Hannah Peters/FIFA/Getty Images

FIFA, world soccer’s governing body, are reportedly trying to rush through a new rule to ensure there is only one coin toss before a penalty shootout at this summer’s World Cup.

Penalty shootouts have been a staple of World Cup knockout play for the past four decades, offering a cruel and captivating way of deciding the winner of a match which remains level after 90 minutes of normal play and an extra half-hour of extra time.

Before this heart-wrenching exercise in nerve begins, the captains of each team huddle around the referee to decide two things: which team will take the first kick, and from which end of the stadium the penalties will be taken.

Under the current regulations, the referee performs two separate coin tosses to decide each factor. This creates the very real scenario (exactly one-in-four, in fact) of a team losing both coin tosses and thereby being at a double disadvantage.

Compete against the world. | SPORTS ILLUSTRATED

FIFA have proposed a move to just one test of fate, with the captains given the choice of deciding the order or the location of the kicks—not both, according to The Times. So if Team A wins the first toss and decides to kick first, then Team B is automatically given the power of deciding which set of fans get to be closest to the penalties.

There have been no shortage of significant rule changes this summer, all of which were trailed weeks and months in advance of a tournament which has been planned since the U.S., Mexico and Canada won the bid to jointly host the World Cup in 2018. Quite why FIFA have had a sudden panic about the justice of penalty shootouts during the group stage is not clear.

However, the powers that be can still force through this proposed amendment if IFAB—soccer’s official lawmakers—approval the request before Sunday’s first knockout match.

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Does It Matter Who Takes the First Penalty in a Shootout?

Harry Kane has missed more penalties for England than any other male international. | Sanjin Strukic/Pixsell/MB Media/Getty Images

Penalty shootouts have been the subject of extensive statistical analysis for years. They represent a real life, ruthlessly high stakes example of game theory. Countless studies have been carried out analysing the minute detail of this fascinating athletic experiment, with various conclusions drawn up about everything from the order of takers to the number of seconds before the ball is kicked.

Some of this research hit the mainstream. Recent major tournaments have been awash with commentators confidently informing viewers that the team which takes the first kick has a significant advantage of winning the shootout. This is an easy conclusion to swallow for most who can empathize with the idea that, after watching the opposition score their first kick, the psychological pressure on the next taker is too much to bear.

However, other studies have sprung up since claiming the precise opposite conclusion—or something in between.

According to David Pipke’s paper in last year’s Journal of Economic Psychology, the “lack of consensus” in these various investigations is “likely due to limited sample sizes.” In an attempt to cut through the noise, Pipke combed through 7,000 shootouts and 74,000 kicks to find that there is “no evidence” that the team which takes the first kick has a better chance of winning.

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