Supercomputer Predicts Argentina’s World Cup Chances After Roster Revealed

Lionel Messi is heading to his sixth World Cup tournament.

Argentina is among the favorites this summer. | Luis ROBAYO/AFP/Getty Images

Reigning world champion Argentina heads to the World Cup this summer as one of the favorites to go all the way again.

Led by big names like Enzo Fernández, Julián Alvarez and, of course, Lionel Messi, Argentina boasts one of the most stacked rosters traveling to the United States, Mexico and Canada, where Messi is destined to become one of the first players to appear at six World Cup tournaments.

Not since 1962 has a nation defended its crown at the World Cup, but Argentina, Copa América champions in both 2021 and 2024, has every reason to feel good about its chances of another famous triumph.

Ahead of the competition, the Opta supercomputer has rated Argentina’s chances of going all the way.

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Supercomputer Predicts Argentina’s World Cup Group Stage Odds

Argentina should face few issues in the group stage. | ALEJANDRO PAGNI/AFP/Getty Images

Argentina is the favorite to finish top of Group J. There are no surprises with that pick.

Austria and Algeria both have the potential to cause problems, however, while minnow Jordan appears set for a bruising group stage.

Even with the threat of some dark horses in the group, only Spain is given better odds of finishing top of its group than Argentina, which sits at a whopping 72.55%.

Austria would appear to be Argentina’s biggest threat, but odds of 13.26% suggest anything other than a win for La Albiceleste would come as an immense surprise.

That being said, even if Argentina isn’t firing on all cylinders in the group stage, the new format—the top two finishers advance alongside the eight best teams in third—Argentina is given a whopping 96.81% chance of making to the round of 32.

Team	Odds of Winning Group J	Odds of Advancing to Round of 32
Argentina	72.55%	96.81%
Austria	13.26%	68.00%
Algeria	9.24%	56.73%
Jordan	4.96%	40.44%

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Supercomputer Predicts Argentina’s World Cup Knockout Stage Odds

Argentina hopes to go all the way. | Maja Hitij/FIFA/Getty Images

With respect to the competition in Group H, Argentina will already have one eye on the knockout stages.

Things could get really serious as early as the round of 32. If Argentina does finish top of the group, a date with the team that comes second in Group H, which contains both Spain and Uruguay. Spain actually has the greatest odds of winning its group, meaning Uruguay would be the likeliest opponent.

Argentina’s odds of reaching the round of 16 do drop down to 63.16%, but it must be noted that only three teams are given a better chance—including Spain.

The reward for winning that tie would be significant as the bracket suggests Argentina would face either Australia or Iran. Scaloni’s side will fancy its chances of victory there and, once again, boast the fourth-highest odds of advancing to the quarterfinals at 45.29%.

Assuming this narrative proves to be correct so far, a famous meeting between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo could be on the cards in the quarterfinals. However, the likes of Colombia and Switzerland are also realistic opponents, but none should cause too many problems and the supercomputer gives Argentina odds of 30.48% of reaching the final four—again, only bettered by three teams.

The likes of England or Brazil could be waiting for Argentina in the semifinals, and here’s where things get a bit hairy. The Three Lions are one of the three sides favored over Scaloni’s outfit, although odds of reaching the final of 18.05% are only marginally behind England’s 19.21%.

A trip to the final would likely yield a meeting with Spain. Unfortunately for Argentina, La Roja sits right at the top of the rankings with the highest odds of victory at 16.12%, comfortably clear of the competition and ahead of Argentina’s 10.34%.

Round	Argentina’s Odds of Making it
Round of 16	63.16%
Quarterfinals	45.29%
Semifinals	30.48%
Final	18.05%
Winners	10.34%

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