Supercomputer Predicts 2026 World Cup Winner After Group Stage Concludes

Just 32 teams remain in the 2026 World Cup.

It’s time for the knockout stages of the World Cup. | Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu/Getty Images

The group stage of the 2026 World Cup has come to a close and it’s full steam ahead into the round of 32.

We started this summer with 48 teams but are now down to 32. We’ve lost big names like Uruguay, Scotland and Türkiye, but all the pre-tournament favorites are still alive and kicking in pursuit of glory across the United States, Canada and Mexico.

As the round of 32 prepares to get underway on Sunday, the cogs of the Opta supercomputer have been whirring to rate every team’s chances of glory.

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Supercomputer Predicts World Cup Round of 32

Argentina is among the favorites. | Stefan Koops/EYE4IMAGES/NurPhoto/Getty Images

No team has greater odds of reaching the round of 16 than Argentina. Standing in its way is underdog Cabo Verde, whose spirited journey is expected to come to an emphatic end in the coming days.

Spain is backed to make light work of Austria, as is England in its meeting with DR Congo. Both sides arrived at this summer’s tournament expecting to reach the later stages and the supercomputer does not predict any early obstacles.

Behind those two is France. Sweden promises to be tricky opposition but much will depend on which version of Graham Potter’s side turns up: the one that beat Tunisia 5–1 or lost to the Netherlands by the same scoreline.

Mauricio Pochettino’s USMNT is also given great odds of making it through to the next round, sitting at 78.46%. Canada and Mexico, the other two co-hosts, are both expected to advance comfortably as well.

Fixture	Most Likely Winner
South Africa vs. Canada	Canada (68.29%)
Brazil vs. Japan	Brazil (68.94%)
Germany vs. Paraguay	Germany (78.58%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco	Netherlands (61.17%)
Côte d’Ivoire vs. Norway	Norway (67.81%)
France vs. Sweden	France (81.46%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador	Mexico (61.35%)
England vs. DR Congo	England (84.04%)
Belgium vs. Senegal	Belgium (56.91%)
USMNT vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina	USMNT (78.46%)
Spain vs. Austria	Spain (85.22%)
Portugal vs. Croatia	Portugal (67.42%)
Switzerland vs. Algeria	Switzerland (65.21%)
Australia vs. Egypt	Egypt (53.56%)
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde	Argentina (89.24%)
Colombia vs. Ghana	Colombia (71.91%)

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Supercomputer Predicts 2026 World Cup Winner

France remains the favorite. | Maddie Meyer/FIFA/Getty Images

Looking ahead all the way to the final, two teams stand out from the crowd.

Leading the way is France with a chance of 18.66%, putting Les Bleus marginally ahead of Argentina’s 16.26%.

There’s a small jump down to third, where Spain sits with odds of 13.47%, while England sits on an island of its own at 9.68%.

Brazil (6.47%) and the Netherlands (5.11%) are seen as outside hopefuls at this stage in the competition.

For the co-hosts, Canada sits lowest in the rankings at 0.47%, with Mexico up at 1.81%. The USMNT leads the way once again at 2.45%, but there are 10 teams seen as more likely winners.

Team	Chances of Winning the World Cup
France	18.66%
Argentina	16.26%
Spain	13.47%
England	9.68%
Brazil	6.47%
Netherlands	5.11%
Portugal	4.74%
Germany	4.36%
Colombia	3.19%
Norway	2.95%

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