Supercomputer Predicts Every 2026 World Cup Playoff Final Winner

Tuesday, March 31, 2026 will go down in World Cup qualification folklore.

Hanging beside Cristiano Ronaldo’s spectacular showdown with Zlatan Ibrahimović in 2013, England’s 5–1 thumping of Germany in 2001 and Colombia’s historic 5–0 evisceration of Argentina in 1993, the conclusion of the 2026 World Cup playoffs promises to be an enthralling spectacle.

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There are six finals all staged on the same night, which will produce the final half-dozen entrants into this summer’s tournament. Twelve teams spread across five continents all duking it out for a ticket to the biggest stage the sport has to offer.

But who will prevail? Opta have crunched the numbers in an attempt to offer some cold logic to a night of heated tension across the globe.

Supercomputer Predicts UEFA Playoff Final Winners

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs. Italy

Sandro Tonali’s goal settled Italian nerves on Thursday. | Chris Ricco/Getty Images

After battling past a stubborn Northern Ireland side in Bergamo, Italy’s players were spotted celebrating Bosnia & Herzegovina’s triumph over Wales in the opposite semifinal. Presumably the Azzurri’s players were thankful of avoiding a trip to the intimidating Cardiff cauldron. Yet, that just shows where Italy is right now.

As Bosnia’s talismanic captain Edin Džeko duly pointed out: “If they’re afraid to play in Wales, something isn’t working.”

Plenty isn’t working for Italy as the proud soccer nation desperately tries to avoid a third successive World Cup qualification failure. Opta are confident the four-time champion will make its first tournament since 2014, yet Bosnia’s manager Sergej Barbarez has warned Italy of how important a fast start will be: “If we score and it’s 1–0 for us, we’ll park the bus at one end of the pitch.”

Outcome	Likelihood
Bosnia & Herzegovina win in normal time	19.5%
Italy win in normal time	59.6%
Draw in normal time	20.8%

Sweden vs. Poland

Viktor Gyökeres celebrating. — Viktor Gyökeres scored his second hat-trick for Sweden on Thursday. | Lukasz Germaniuk/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images

The clash between Sweden and Poland has been swiftly—and predictably—billed as the direct head-to-head between Viktor Gyökeres and Robert Lewandowski. Both elite strikers scored in their respective semifinal playoffs, with Arsenal’s masked man snagging a hat-trick in a particularly impressive display against Ukraine.

When he was asked if he could replicate such a feat on Tuesday night, Gyökeres simply smiled. “That wouldn’t be a bad thing, no?”

Opta don’t go into the detail of the predicted scorers, but Sweden and Gyökeres are given the edge. However, Lewandowski and Poland should not be discounted even if they are away from home.

Outcome	Likelihood
Sweden win in normal time	40.9%
Poland win in normal time	32.4%
Draw in normal time	26.7%

Kosovo vs. Turkiye

Arda Güler, Ferdi Kadıoğlu — Türkiye haven’t qualified for the World Cup in a generation. | YASIN AKGUL/AFP/Getty Images

Kosovo are clearly ranked outsiders for this tie. That a soccer team who played its first official international game in 2014 is even one game away from the World Cup should be something to celebrate—and there was plenty of celebrating after and during the cathartic 4–3 semifinal victory over Slovakia, one nation which notably doesn’t recognize Kosovo.

There’s not so much bad blood in Tuesday’s tie with Türkiye, but it will still be a tough challenge given its lofty ranking as the 24th-best team in the world.

Opta are backing the visitors, but Kosovo has plenty of hope for the home fixture. “We know Turkey’s qualities. They are a better team than Slovakia. We also know their weaknesses,” the team’s star striker, Vedat Muriqi, warned. “We will give our best. With the support of the fans, I believe it will be a little easier.”

It will also be a little easier if Muriqi lives up to his club form for Mallorca. The affable, proudly ungainly forward boasts 18 goals in La Liga this season, a tally only Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé can better.

Outcome	Likelihood
Kosovo win in normal time	27.2%
Türkiye win in normal time	48.8%
Draw in normal time	23.9%

Czechia vs. Denmark

Christian Eriksen — Denmark have qualified for five of the previous seven World Cups. | Ulrik Pedersen/NurPhoto/Getty Images

For the first 85 minutes of Thursday’s semifinals, Denmark thought it would be lining up against the Republic of Ireland on Tuesday. After shipping two goals in the opening opening 23 minutes, Czechia rallied to halve the deficit through Patrik Schick in the first half before Wolverhampton Wanderers’ Ladislav Krejčí’s enjoyed a rare moment of joy amid a bleak club campaign to equalize in the 86th minute. It was Krejčí who then struck the winning spot kick in the triumphant penalty shootout.

Denmark’s semifinal was far more straightforward, a 4–0 win over North Macedonia, and the Scandinavians are also favorites to come through Tuesday’s decider. Whether it will be quite so one-sided is another matter.

Outcome	Likelihood
Czechia win in normal time	32.5%
Denmark win in normal time	42.1%
Draw in normal time	25.5%

Supercomputer Predicts Inter-Continental Playoff Final Winners

DR Congo vs. Jamaica

Jamaica’s Damion Lowe. — Jamaica beat New Caledonia to qualify for the final. | Simon Barber/Getty Images

This has to be the time for DR Congo. The nation’s one and only previous men’s World Cup appearance came in 1974, while it was still known as Zaire, and ended in humiliation.

The freshly crowned African champions fell incredibly short of pre-tournament expectations, losing 2–0 to Scotland before shipping nine goals at the hands of Yugoslavia. Amid grave threats from President Joseph Mobutu’s murderous dictatorship back home in the event of another embarrassment, the team was told in no uncertain terms that it could not lose by more than three goals against Brazil.

While trailing 2–0, Mwepu Ilunga infamously charged out a defensive wall at a free kick to boot the ball upfield in front of a gaggle of bemused Brazilians. As he later explained, it was an attempt to get a red card as a protest against the regime, who had also refused to pay the players their bonuses. “I said to myself: ‘I’m not playing anymore,’” he recalled. “Why would I stay on the field and take the risk of not returning home when the others—the people who took our money—are watching us peacefully from the stands?”

It was a moment broadcast around the globe and for years to come to ridicule Zaire and African soccer en masse without ever looking into the reasoning behind it. Now the current generation have a chance to right those historic wrongs with just one more win against Jamaica. According to Opta, it’s a pretty good chance.

Outcome	Likelihood
DR Congo win in normal time	67.7%
Jamaica win in normal time	14.9%
Draw in normal time	17.4%

Iraq vs. Bolivia

Bolivia celebrating. — Bolivia already has a win under its belt in March. | Azael Rodriguez/Getty Images

Bolivia’s World Cup qualification campaign began back on Sept. 8, 2023 with a 5–1 defeat to Brazil. A swollen 935 days later, they are just one game away from finishing the process in the best way possible.

The South American minnows came from behind to defeat Suriname in its playoff semifinal on Thursday to set up this one-legged showdown with Iraq in northern Mexico. Out of all six playoff finals taking place on Tuesday, this is the tightest one to call.

Almost nothing separates the sides according to Opta’s metrics, with the possibility of extra time a very prominent reality. For both it is a fixture of huge significance given their respective droughts on the global stage.

While Bolivia’s last World Cup was also the last time the U.S. hosted back in 1994, Iraq hasn’t clambered into the spotlight since 1986. The Asian side’s Australian coach Graham Arnold called the task on his hands “one of the toughest jobs in the world.” It certainly doesn’t look straightforward against Bolivia.

Outcome	Likelihood
Iraq win in normal time	37.5%
Bolivia win in normal time	35.2%
Draw in normal time	27.3%