Supercomputer Predicts Germany’s 2026 World Cup Chances After Devastating Injury Blow

Just nine days before Germany’s first World Cup match, Julian Nagelsmann was robbed of a “perfect fit” for the squad.

Lennart Karl was in line for a starting spot at the World Cup. | Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images

Lennart Karl’s senior career is less than a year old but the German wonderkid has already been dealt one of the harshest lessons imaginable.

“Unfortunately,” he wrote on social media after his World Cup withdrawal was confirmed, “injuries often happen at the worst possible time.”

Karl enjoyed a staggering breakthrough campaign with Bayern Munich, racking up nine goals and eight assists while being trusted to make 39 appearances for Vincent Kompany’s Bundesliga champions. However, that stellar season was soured by a muscle tear in April which derailed his involvement in the Champions League knockout stages and his World Cup has been concluded before it even got a chance to begin with another piece of injury heartache.

“I don’t even know where to begin, but it hurts so incredibly much to miss the biggest tournament,” Karl lamented. “I did everything I could to be fit for the World Cup.”

The 18-year-old was the youngest member of Julian Nagelsmann’s roster and was vying with Leroy Sané for a starting spot on the right wing. Karl got the nod in Germany’s breezy 4–0 friendly victory over Finland in a strong lineup.

However, with just minutes remaining of Germany’s training session at Soldier Field in Chicago, Karl tore a bundle of muscles in his left thigh. “I feel incredibly sorry for Lenny,” Nagelsmann said. “With his light‑heartedness, his creativity, his pace, and his personality, he fit into the team perfectly.

“It is a huge shock for him and for all of us that he will miss the World Cup. It is only a small consolation that he is young and still has many tournaments ahead of him. We would have loved to have him in the team.”

Germany’s global aspirations won’t be entirely quashed by this blow. Assan Ouedraogo, the RB Leipzig forward called up in Karl’s place, should serve as an able deputy to Sané, who is now widely expected to start. However, this blow is an unwanted wrinkle in Germany’s delicate preparation.

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Supercomputer Predicts Germany’s 2026 World Cup Group Stage Chances

Germany has high hopes this summer. | EyesWideOpen/Getty Images

Predicted Position	Team	Predicted Points	Qualification Chances
1.	Germany	6.50	96.36%
2.	Ecuador	5.10	87.21%
3.	Côte d’Ivoire	3.61	64.18%
4.	Curaçao	1.56	18.71%

Predictions via Opta.

Despite Karl’s absence, Germany remains the heavy favorite to top Group E. Ecuador will likely be its closest challengers, boasting a formidable rearguard action of Champions League finalists Piero Hincapié and Willian Pacho at center back behind Chelsea’s Moisés Caicedo.

Côte d’Ivoire has once again been dealt an unfavorable group stage draw, but Emerse Faé’s 2023 African champion is hopeful of getting to the second round for the first time in the nation’s history. Curaçao, whose preparations have been unsettled by managerial change rather than player upheaval, is the rank outsider.

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Supercomputer Predicts Germany’s 2026 World Cup Knockout Chances

Germany has disappointed at back-to-back World Cups. | Marvin Ibo Guengoer/GES Sportfoto/Getty Images

Round	Chances of Winning	Likeliest Opponent
Round of 32	61.17%	Paraguay
Round of 16	33.36%	France
Quarterfinal	19.93%	Netherlands
Semifinal	10.77%	Spain
Final	5.43%	England

Germany has infamously crashed out at the group stage of the past two World Cups but Opta’s supercomputer is remarkably confident of progression this summer. Should Die Mannschaft make it through, it will be up against a side which finished third in the group stage.

There are 495 different possible combinations of third-place qualifiers, each one slightly altering the makeup of the knockout round. In the scenario considered to be most likely by Opta, Germany could find themself up against Paraguay in the round of 32.

The durable South American outfit isn’t free-scoring—18 games of qualifying produced a grand total of 14 goals—but results have been forthcoming: Paraguay finished level on points with Brazil, Ecuador and Colombia. Nevertheless, Germany is expected to battle through that tie.

This is where the draw has not favored Nagelsmann & Co. Germany is on course for a collision with France as early as the round of 16. Find a way past arguably the favorites for the entire tournament, and then there will be hope of navigating a way beyond the Netherlands and Spain.

Should Germany upset the odds and make it to the showpiece fixture in New Jersey on July 19, England, remarkably, is tipped to be its most likely adversary. The Three Lions are given the edge in this hypothetical rematch of the 1966 World Cup final but by that point, Germany will have hope of going all the way.

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