Supercomputer Predicts La Liga Title Race After Real Madrid Shock Barcelona in El Clasico

Who saw that coming? Real Madrid ended Barcelona’s winning streak in spectacular fashion on Sunday night to turn the early season narratives on their heads.

Prior to kickoff at Camp Nou on Sunday, the prevailing wisdom had it that red-hot Barcelona would prove unstoppable for a Madrid side still finding their feet at the start of the second José Mourinho era.

Had they won, Barcelona would have become the first team in La Liga history—or, indeed, any of Europe’s big five leagues—to open a campaign with 10 straight wins. Instead, Hansi Flick’s side were largely nullified by their rivals and fell to their second defeat of the week, as Kylian Mbappé bagged a double.

It’s a result that changes not much and everything. Barcelona remain top, and Real Madrid sit third but perceptions have been altered. Barça are no longer unbeaten, or unbeatable. Madrid and Mourinho, meanwhile, have liftoff.

What was widely expected to be a nine-point gap in the table by the end of the weekend, now stands at just three. The title race is on.

Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer updated its La Liga predictions following the result.

Supercomputer Predicts 2026–27 La Liga Title Winner

Jude Bellingham, Lamine Yamal, Pedri. — Barcelona are still in pole position despite defeat. | Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Barcelona’s statistical chance of winning La Liga remains strong at 66.73%, according to Opta’s calculations. However, that is some drop from before the Clásico kicked off, when it was above 80.

Sunday’s victors Real Madrid, by contrast, are rated as having a 24.2% chance of lifting their first La Liga title since 2024.

The third team in the title race, Atlético Madrid—who beat Deportivo 1–0 at the weekend—are given just an 8.38% probability of success, despite currently having more points than their city rivals.

No other club even gets even a full percentage point’s chance of glory, with the last team outside of Spain’s big three to hold aloft the trophy Valencia way back in 2004.

Predicted Position / Club	Actual Points	Predicted Points	Title Chance
1. Barcelona	27	87.82	66.73%
2. Real Madrid	24	81.32	24.20%
3. Atlético Madrid	25	75.70	8.83%
4. Real Betis	20	64.97	0.58%

Mourinho, Mbappe Talk Up Title Race

José Mourinho — Mourinho’s Madrid are back in contention. | Alex Caparros/Getty Images

Speaking after the game-changing display on Sunday, both Mourinho and Mbappé touched on Madrid’s renewed title hopes.

“Real Madrid do not play just to win at Camp Nou. Real Madrid play to win La Liga,” Mourinho told reporters after the statement performance. “This must be the mentality. We need to continue like this and not get carried away after this win.”

Mbappé, meanwhile, called on his teammates to harness the collective spirit that got them over the line in Catalonia for the rest of the season.

The superstar forward said: “We had difficult moments in the match, moments that we dominated, and in the end, winning and still being in the title race is very important for us, but we have to keep going. We know that in the end, it's a big match, but it counts as three points, and we have to collect many points to win the league.

“We have to keep going because five consecutive wins for us are nothing, we want to win every game. This victory at the Camp Nou sends a good message, but we can't think the season is over. Next week in Santander, we have to bring the same intensity.”

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