Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Table After Man City Leapfrog Arsenal to Go Top

The Citizens have completely erased Arsenal’s nine-point gap atop the table.

Erling Haaland (left) led Manchester City to victory over Burnley. | Paul Ellis/AFP/Getty Images

For the first time since August, Manchester City sit at the summit of the Premier League, ending Arsenal’s reign atop the table.

Pep Guardiola’s men extended their winning streak to five matches across all competitions on Wednesday with a 1–0 victory over Burnley at Turf Moor. It wasn’t exactly a vintage City performance, but all that matters is the three points they collected to snatch first place from the Gunners.

The two title-contenders now sit level at 70 points atop the table, each with a goal difference of +37. But the Citizens have scored 66 goals to Arsenal’s 63, which is enough to put the Sky Blues in pole position for the Premier League title, a feat that looked nearly impossible just four months ago.

City’s midweek win also officially sent Burnley down to the Championship, leaving the relegation race down to just four clubs: Leeds United, who snatched a point against Bournemouth on Wednesday evening, Nottingham Forest, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur.

As the Premier League enters its final month of fixtures, here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the final table to shake out after City’s latest win.

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Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title Winner

Arsenal are still the favorites to win the Premier League. | Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC/Getty Images

Position	Team	Current Points	Expected Points	Title Chances
1.	Arsenal	70	80.75	66.38%
2.	Man City	70	79.17	33.62%

Opta still backs Arsenal to win the Premier League title, but with each passing week, the supercomputer lowers the Gunners’ chances. After blowing a nine-point lead, Mikel Arteta’s men now only have 66.38% odds to end their nearly 22-year wait for the English crown.

The odds are still in their favor upon first glance. After all, Man City have just a 33.62% chance to claim their 11th league title. But the predicted points are far closer than the percentages.

Arsenal are expected to finish with near 81 points, while the Citizens stand to collect around 79. The projected 1.58-point gap leaves little room for error for either side; one slip up could decide the title race.

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Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Race

Manchester United are eyeing a return to the Champions League. | Ash Donelon/Manchester United/Getty Images

Position	Team	Current Points	Expected Points	Champions League Chances
3.	Aston Villa	58	65.91	98.92%
4.	Man Utd	58	65.75	98.60%
5.	Liverpool	55	62.83	91.04%
6.	Brighton	50	56.42	6.42%
7.	Bournemouth	49	54.63	0.96%

In Opta’s eyes, the race for the Champions League places is all but wrapped up. Aston Villa and Manchester United lead the way in third and fourth respectively, each with over 98% odds to qualify for Europe’s premier club competition with around 65 points.

Liverpool, who currently sit just three points behind the Villans and Red Devils, are the last and final English team expected to compete in the 2026–27 Champions League. Despite the Reds’ troubling campaign, the defending Premier League champions are projected to collect around 63 points, enough to secure a place among Europe’s elite next season.

The supercomputer favors Brighton & Hove Albion as the only other team with any sort of hope to crack the Champions League places, though a 6.42% chance is rather bleak. The Seagulls will be more than happy, though, to settle for the Europa League, a competition they previously qualified for in 2023 for the first time in history.

Bournemouth are clinging to the final European spot as it stands with 49 points. Opta has the club collecting just five more points to close out the season, but it thinks that will be enough to secure a place in the Conference League.

Looking for Chelsea? The Blues are slated to finish ninth with just 53.83 points, missing out completely on European competition next season. The prediction is no surprise considering the Blues have lost their last five league matches and just cut ties with Liam Rosenior.

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Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Relegation Battle

Tottenham have yet to win a league game in 2026. | Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images

Position	Team	Current Points	Expected Points	Relegation Chances
15.	Leeds	40	45.68	0.21%
16.	Nottingham Forest	36	42.06	4.27%
17.	West Ham	33	38.44	38.58%
18.	Tottenham	31	36.91	56.93%
19.	Burnley	20	23.47	100%
20.	Wolves	17	22.81	100%

Leeds United are well on their way to safety with 40 points through 34 games. Their chances of falling to the drop zone are a minuscule 0.21%, essentially nonexistent.

Not far behind are Nottingham Forest, who are projected to finish in 16th place with around 42 points. Two massive wins over Spurs and Burnley put the Tricky Trees in a prime position to fend off relegation despite losing nearly half of their league matches this season.

The real battle is between West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. The Hammers sit in 17th, just two points above Roberto De Zerbi’s men in 18th place. According to Opta, it will still be two points separating the two sides come the final matchday, with Spurs dropping to the Championship for the first time since 1977.

Tottenham have a staggering 56.93% chance of relegation, a number that would have sounded ridiculous at the start of the season. Yet the team has yet to win a league match in 2026 and are running out of time to save themselves. In fact, the supercomputer deems them incapable of doing so.

Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers, meanwhile, have already been officially relegated.

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