Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Table As Man City Send Arsenal Title Message

A thumping 3–0 win for Man City over Brentford could prove decisive should Arsenal drop points across their remaining three games.

Jérémy Doku’s rich vein of form has come at the right time. | Darren Staples/AFP/Getty Images

In the buildup to Manchester City’s FA Cup semifinal against Southampton, Jérémy Doku gave a series of interviews with one common theme: he wanted more goals.

“A winger needs to score,” the devilish dribbler acknowledged to numerous outlets, stressing that “even five tap-ins a season” could “make a big difference.” Across his subsequent three appearances, Doku has rattled in four goals, although none of them were tap-ins. The Belgian forward swung in another superb curling effort to set City on their way to a potentially significant 3–0 victory over Brentford on Saturday afternoon.

Doku had been on target twice against Everton on Monday night, but couldn’t help City avoid dropping points in a 3–3 draw. Pep Guardiola’s side responded to that shock setback with a late flurry of goals against the Bees that could yet prove decisive should the Premier League title race with Arsenal come down to goal difference.

As it stands, City have closed the gap to just two points at the division’s summit with both sides still to play three games. Erling Haaland, who found the net himself against Brentford, had warned everyone that his side are “still in it” immediately after the setback against Everton. Saturday’s victory justified his faith, even if Opta’s supercomputer wasn’t quite as optimistic.

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Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title Race

It’s a real battle between Arsenal and Manchester City. | Catherine Ivill-AMA/Getty Images

Predicted Position	Team	Actual Points	Predicted Points	Title Chances
1.	Arsenal	76	82.37	79.7%
2.	Man City	74	79.55	20.3%

Arsenal were given an 85% chance of winning the league in the immediate aftermath of City’s stumble on Merseyside earlier this week. An eventually comfortable win over Brentford has reduced the arrears, but the Gunners still emerge triumphant in the vast majority of Opta’s 10,000 simulations of the Premier League’s remaining fixtures.

This level of confidence has persisted throughout the season, ignoring the various gulleys of form endured by the Gunners over a disastrous spring. Mikel Arteta’s Champions League finalists have struck upon a strong vein of form lately, although the toll those recent performances have taken on an injury riddled roster may come to the fore over the domestic campaign’s conclusion.

West Ham United, Arsenal’s next opponents, have made a habit of unsettling their London rivals. The Hammers beat the Gunners last season to snuff out their slim hope of challenging Liverpool, set the wheels in motion for a late stumble in 2023–24 with another victory at the Emirates and scrambled a 2–2 draw in east London three years ago to help derail the club's first title tilt under Arteta.

Yet, for all the hurdles Arsenal have to overcome, Opta are even more pessimistic about City. Guardiola’s challengers theoretically have straightforward fixtures against Crystal Palace and Aston Villa—two teams preparing for European finals—sandwiched between a very tricky trip to Bournemouth. Three days after the FA Cup final, City will find themselves at the Vitality Stadium for Andoni Iraola’s last home game on the south coast while his Cherries are still chasing Champions League qualification.

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Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Race for Europe

Champions League Battle

Gravenberch’s scorching goal was only good enough for a point. | Liverpool FC/Getty Images

Predicted Position	Team	Actual Points	Predicted Points	UCL Qualification Chances
3.	Man Utd	65	68.01	100%
4.	Liverpool	59	62.44	97.30%
5.	Aston Villa	58	61.90	90.43%
6.	Bournemouth	55	57.45	9.24%
7.	Brighton	53	55.86	3.03%

It was painfully evident that Manchester United had already secured Champions League qualification as they listlessly limped towards a goalless draw with Sunderland on Saturday in their first game since sealing that status. Liverpool appeared to be scarcely more motivated for much of their 1–1 draw with Chelsea despite still needing another win to guarantee a top-five finish.

A disappointing drop-off at Anfield notwithstanding, the Reds remain heavy favorites to punch their Champions League ticket. Not that the dismayed Merseyside crowd—or Arne Slot—would have been swayed by that stance.

“We wanted to qualify for it weeks ago,” Slot sighed. “It isn’t the season we're having, though. Sometimes it is really hard to accept these results because we are used to different ones.”

Intriguingly, Liverpool are next in action against Aston Villa, the other side heavily expected to join them in the Champions League places. However, neither team is quite guaranteed a seat at Europe’s top table just yet.

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The Mix for Sixth

Rayan has Bournemouth dreaming of Europe. | Robin Jones - AFC Bournemouth/Getty Images

Predicted Position	Team	Actual Points	Predicted Points	6th-Place Chances
6.	Bournemouth	55	57.45	51.88%
7.	Brighton	53	55.86	30.59%
8.	Brentford	51	53.71	4.17%
9.	Everton	48	52.22	1.18%
10.	Chelsea	49	52.11	0.73%

“Today was a very important step forward,” Bournemouth’s Andoni Iraola beamed after his side battled to a 1–0 win over Fulham on Saturday, “but we still have to get more points.” The Cherries still have a slim chance of automatically qualifying for the Champions League. They would likely have to win their final two fixtures—including that visit from league-chasing Manchester City—and hope one of Villa or Liverpool drop points.

Brighton & Hove Albion haven’t yet given up hope of the top five, but sixth is a more realistic goal. That the Seagulls are even in with a chance of any continental competition is an example of this helter-skelter Premier League campaign. “It’s a mental season,” club captain Lewis Dunk gushed, “one minute we’re looking at relegation and now we’re talking about Europe, it’s great fun football, isn’t it?”

Chelsea haven’t had a lot of fun lately. The Blues belatedly halted their losing streak against Liverpool on Saturday yet a point hasn’t done much to boost their chances of salvaging this underwhelming campaign. Remarkably, Everton have better odds of clambering into sixth place than the reigning Club World Cup champions.

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Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Relegation Battle

Roberto De Zerbi is trying to outwit Nuno Espírito Santo. | Rob Newell/CameraSport/Getty Images, Kevin Hodgson/MI News/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Predicted Position	Team	Actual Points	Predicted Points	Relegation Chances
14.	Crystal Palace	43	47.08	0.06%
15.	Leeds	43	46.62	0.15%
16.	Nottingham Forest	42	45.98	0.14%
17.	Tottenham	37	41.23	19.69%
18.	West Ham	36	39.15	79.96%
19.	Burnley	20	22.61	100%
20.	Wolves	18	20.45	100%

Saturday was spared any more relegation permutations, with West Ham not playing Arsenal until Sunday while Tottenham Hotspur conclude the matchday with a crunch clash against Leeds United on Monday. However, Spurs’ chances of survival still improved.

This was a consequence of their upcoming opponents Chelsea deemed to have been even more of a diminished force after a middling showing against Liverpool. Both Tottenham and West Ham still have to play Leeds while Spurs end the league season against an Everton side which may have nothing left to play for. West Ham’s last away day of the season, a long trip to Newcastle United next weekend, is also up against an unmotivated foe.

Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley have already had relegation guaranteed. They’ve been playing like it for a while.

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