Supercomputer Predicts Real Madrid’s La Liga Title Chances Under Alvaro Arbeloa

Los Blancos closed the gap to bitter rivals Barcelona atop the table.

Kylian Mbappé (left) and Vinicius Junior are leading the charge for Real Madrid. | Catherine Steenkeste/Getty Images

After a turbulent few months, Real Madrid once again look like La Liga title contenders after securing a 2–0 victory over third-place Villarreal on Saturday evening.

Los Blancos’ 2025–26 season reached a low point just two weeks into the new year. The club trailed Barcelona by four points in the La Liga title race, fell to their arch rivals in the Spanish Super Cup final and cut ties with Xabi Alonso just 34 games into his tenure.

The Álvaro Arbeloa era then got off to a disastrous start, with second-tier Albacete knocking Real Madrid out of the Copa del Rey in the round of 16. The superstars in white bounced back from the humiliating elimination, though, and won their next three matches under their new boss.

Helped out by Barcelona’s 2–1 defeat to Real Sociedad last weekend, Los Blancos are now top of the table ahead of the Catalans’ clash with Real Oviedo. Even if the defending Spanish champions come away with three points and retake first place, the two Spanish giants will only be separated by one point.

Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the La Liga title race to pan out.

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Supercomputer’s Predicted 2025–26 La Liga Table

La Liga Title Race

Barcelona are still the La Liga favorites. | Fadel Senna/AFP/Getty Images

Pos.	Team	Current Points	Expected Points	Title Percentage
1.	Barcelona	49*	88.48	62.94
2.	Real Madrid	51	85.82	34.99
3.	Atlético Madrid	41*	75.88	1.98
4.	Villarreal	41	70.07	0.09

*Have a game in hand.

Despite Real Madrid’s recent surge up the standings, Barcelona are still Opta’s pick to win the league. The Catalans have a 62.94% chance of defending their Spanish crown and claiming their 29th La Liga title come May.

Flick’s side is projected to finish with 88.48 points, around four more than Real Madrid’s 85.82. Should Barcelona indeed end the season with 88 points, they will match their title-winning tally from last season.

Los Blancos, meanwhile, are expected to claim just one more point than the 84 they collected in 2024–25. Arbeloa’s men might currently sit atop the standings, but the supercomputer only gives them around a 35% chance of lifting the La Liga title at the end of the season.

Yet there are still four months to go in 2025–26, giving the 15-time European champions plenty of time to increase their odds. Things are not so optimistic for third-place Atlético Madrid and fourth-place Villarreal.

The two clubs have a combined 2.7% chance of claiming La Liga glory. Like so many times before, the fight for the Spanish crown is shaping up to be a two-horse race.

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Kylian Mbappé Chasing First Major Trophy at Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappé has scored 21 goals in La Liga this season. | Oscar J. Barroso/Europa Press/Getty Images

If Real Madrid want to turn their season around and dethrone Barcelona, they must continue to get the best out of Kylian Mbappé, something new boss Arbeloa is already doing so soon into his tenure. The forward has scored six goals in his three matches under the Spaniard, leading the team to victory against Levante, Monaco and Villarreal.

Mbappé has now recorded 87 goal contributions in 87 appearances for Real Madrid since he made the move to the Spanish capital ahead of the 2024–25 season. For all his individual prowess, the France international has yet to lift a major trophy in a white shirt.

Arbeloa faces a similar challenge since taking over. Two weeks ago, the manager had never even managed a top-flight club, let alone led one to silverware.

The good news for both the face of the club and the new manager is that there are plenty of players in white who know what it takes to win not only La Liga, but also the Champions League. Vinicius Junior, in particular, has proven himself more than capable of taking Real Madrid to extraordinary heights, and the No. 7 is looking back to his best with the support of Arbeloa.

It will be up to the entire squad, though, to get Real Madrid back to the mountaintop in Spain. Much like last season’s La Liga title race, the future champions could be decided in El Clásico.

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