Supercomputer Predicts USMNT’s 2026 World Cup Chances Following Roster Reveal

Manager Mauricio Pochettino has selected the group he hopes will lead the U.S. to glory this summer, but what are the chances?

The USMNT World Cup roster was unveiled on Tuesday afternoon. | Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images

The U.S. men’s national team officially announced its 2026 World Cup roster, the group of 26 players that hope to lead the country to it’s greatest-ever tournament performance, right on American soil.

The 26-man roster selected by manager Mauricio Pochettino boasts a blend of experience and youth, with half of the players preparing for their second-career World Cup. The roster selection isn’t devoid of controversy, though, with some notable omissions standing out.

Still, the USMNT and it’s so-called “golden generation” arrive to the summer showcase with expectations of making a deep World Cup run. In the first-ever 48-team World Cup, the co-host has plenty of elements working in its favor to meet the lofty expectations, namely home support and a winnable group.

With the USMNT’s World Cup debut less than three weeks away, the crystal ball known as the Opta supercomputer has been crunching the numbers. Following the Stars and Stripes roster announcement, here’s how Opta believes Pochettino’s side will fare in the 2026 World Cup.

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Supercomputer Predicts USMNT’s World Cup Group Stage Odds

The time has come for the USMNT to seize the moment. | Omar Vega/USSF/Getty Images)

The USMNT is the top-ranked team in Group D. As a host nation, the U.S. was never going to face the global powerhouses of the world during the opening round, already making for a favorable group stage journey.

Instead, Pochettino’s side will face Paraguay in its tournament opener, before taking on Australia and finishing its group stage journey with a bout against Türkiye. The No. 16-world ranked USMNT won’t face another top-20 team during the group stage, with No. 22 Türkiye representing the highest ranked team it’ll take on.

As a result of this context, the USMNT are unquestionably the favorites to win out Group D, and Opta agrees with this assessment. The supercomputer gives the U.S. a 32.83% chance of winning the group, holding a slim advantage over Türkiye’s 29.04%.

Opta believes that an embarrassing group stage elimination is unlikely for the Stars and Stripes. Due to the expanded 48-team field, the top two finishers from every group plus the top eight third-place finishers will advance to the knockout stage: the newly added round of 32. The supercomputer gives the USMNT a 76.94% chance of making it past the group stage and into the round of 32.

Team	Odds of Winning Group D	Odds of Advancing to Round of 32
U.S.	32.83	76.94
Türkiye	29.04	73.17
Paraguay	20.51	63.62
Australia	17.62	58.77

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Supercomputer Predicts USMNT’s World Cup Knockout Stage Odds

Is a historic summer in the cards for the USMNT? | Shaun Clark/ISI Photos/ISI Photos/Getty Images

If the USMNT finish atop Group D, it would face the best third-place finisher from Group B, E, F, I or J. Nevertheless, no matter who the team faces in the round of 32, Opta gives the Americans a strong chance of winning the matchup, with a 42.9% chance of advancing to the last 16.

Things get trickier once the round of 16 comes around. The USMNT have only advanced to the quarterfinals once from their previous six trips to the round of 16, and the supercomputer gives them a 19.73% chance of achieving the feat this time. It’s not the greatest of outlooks considering 15 teams have higher odds, according to Opta, but if the U.S. wants to produce a historic World Cup result, it’ll have to defy the odds.

“Why not us?” has become a slogan for the USMNT ahead of the World Cup, and Pochettino dares to dream of at least a semifinal run—if not deeper. Opta, though, gives the U.S. just an 8.08% chance of being one of four semifinalists this summer.

The USMNT has a slim 3.26% probability of making the World Cup final for the first time in history, and finally, Opta gives the U.S. just a 1.33% chance of finishing the summer covered in glory by lifting a maiden World Cup trophy.

For context, Spain has the highest odds of winning the 2026 World Cup with 16.06% in Opta’s eyes.

Round	USMNT Chance of Making it
Round of 16	42.9%
Quarterfinals	19.73%
Semifinal	8.08%
Final	3.26%
Winning World Cup	1.33%

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