Supercomputer Predicts USMNT’s 2026 World Cup Finish After Group Stage Concludes

The U.S. men’s national team is chasing its best finish in the modern era of the World Cup.

Christian Pulisic (left) is expected to be one of the U.S.’s biggest goal contributors in the knockout stages. | Will Lester/MediaNews Group/Inland Valley Daily Bulletin/Getty Images

The U.S. men’s national team might have ended its group stage on a last-gasp loss, falling 3–2 in stoppage time to already-eliminated Türkiye last Thursday; however, despite the poor performance, manager Mauricio Pochettino believed that day went exactly as it should have. The team walked away with no injuries and no yellow card suspensions, while still holding the Group D crown.

The Americans won out the group with consecutive victories over Paraguay and Australia, while relying on Paraguay to upset the Turkish and seal their exit. Therefore, the USMNT’s match against Türkiye was made meaningless, and the USMNT is adamant to view the subsequent loss as meaningless too.

“Winning this game, or not winning this game, is not going to change,” Pochettino said post-match.

He found the very thought of lost momentum ahead of Wednesday’s round of 32 match against Bosnia & Herzegovina “a little bit petty” and a case of thinking “too small.”

If he’s right, then the USMNT will go out and pound the Balkan nation to a pulp. Even with the grittiness and physical prowess that Bosnia brings to the table, it should be no match for the tactical savvy and creative mastery that the USMNT played with against both Paraguay and Australia.

Is Pochettino right, though? Or will the upset loss rattle the men? Here, the Opta supercomputer has been whirring away, calculating predictions for the USMNT’s success in the round of 32 and subsequent rounds at the 2026 World Cup.

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Supercomputer Predicts USMNT’s World Cup Finish

Folarin Balogun (right) has been the X factor for the USMNT this summer. | Richard Heathcote/Getty Images

The supercomputer still heavily favors the USMNT in the battle against Bosnia & Herzegovina, who finished third in Group B behind Switzerland and Canada. Opta predicts the team has a 76.96% chance of beating Bosnia and securing a place in the last 16, matching its finish from its last three World Cup appearances.

The U.S. is desperate to at least reach the quarterfinals for just the second time in the modern era of the World Cup and first time since its historic 2002 run. To do so, the Americans will need to defeat the winner of Belgium vs. Senegal in the round of 16. The supercomputer gives the Americans a 41.33% chance of doing so, a number that would have seemed improbable before the tournament kicked off.

Round	USMNT’s Odds of Advancing
Round of 32	100%
Round of 16	76.96%
Quaterfinals	41.33%
Semifinals	14.90%
Final	5.43%
Winners	2.15%

The USMNT’s odds take a nosedive after the quarterfinals. It only has a 14.90% chance of securing a place in the semifinals.

As for a place in the final? Opta gives Pochettino’s men just a 5.43% chance of booking a spot at MetLife Stadium on July 19. The USMNT has never featured in a World Cup final, and doing so this summer on home soil would be a momentous occasion...that the supercomputer believes will most likely end in heartbreak.

The U.S. only has a 2.15% chance of lifting soccer’s most prestigious prize. France, Spain and Argentina are the only nations given double-digit odds of becoming world champions this summer. The 29 other nations still in the competition, including the U.S., are reduced to minuscule percentages.

The USMNT has already far exceeded expectations, though, and crazy upsets have already happened this summer. Who’s to say Pochettino’s men can’t defy all logic and win the 2026 World Cup?

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