Supercomputer Predicts Wrexham’s EFL Championship Promotion Chances Before Final Day

Wrexham are locked in a three-way battle for the final playoff spot with Hull City and Derby County.

Rob Mac (left) and Ryan Reynolds are gunning for another promotion. | Robbie Jay Barratt-AMA/Getty Images

Before Ryan Reynolds or Rob Mac had even attended their first game at Wrexham’s Racecourse ground, back when the historic Welsh club was still in England’s fifth tier, the ultimate goal was already clear.

“We’d be lying if the dream wasn’t the Premier League,” Reynolds admitted. Less than five years later, that dream doesn’t look so fanciful anymore.

Wrexham are just 90 minutes away from securing the final spot in the EFL Championship’s promotion playoffs. The top five of Coventry City, Ipswich Town, Millwall, Middlesbrough and Southampton are all out of reach, yet Hull City and Derby County are still very much in the race for the sixth-place spot which Wrexham hold with one game of the regular season left to play.

Heading into the final day of the campaign on Saturday, the Red Dragons must at least match the results of Hull (who are seventh and level on points with Wrexham) and Derby (eighth, one point back) to secure postseason soccer.

Given the perilous points tallies and goal difference of the three clubs involved, there are myriad of potential permutations to consider. Opta have turned their supercomputer to the task of crunching through the numbers to spit out the most likely scenario from what promises to be a dramatic final day.

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EFL Championship Standings After 45 Games

Position	Team	Goal Difference	Points
6.	Wrexham	+4	70
7.	Hull	+3	70
8.	Derby	+9	69

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Supercomputer Predicts Wrexham, Hull, Derby Final Day Results

Wrexham are one of three teams in the race for the final playoff position. | Robbie Jay Barratt/AMA/Getty Images

Fixture	Chances of Home Win	Chances of Draw	Chances of Home Loss
Wrexham vs. Middlesbrough	40.3%	26.6%	33.1%
Hull vs. Norwich	39.6%	26.6%	33.8%
Derby vs. Sheffield United	48.6%	25.8%	25.6%

To avoid any collusion, Wrexham, Hull and Derby will all kick off at the same early time on Saturday (12.30 p.m. BST / 7.30 a.m. ET / 4.30 a.m. PT). Derby undoubtedly boast the easiest fixture as they host a Sheffield United side slumped in 15th place with nothing to play for. Unsurprisingly, they are considered by Opta to be the most likely victors this weekend, triumphing in almost half of the 10,000 simulations run by the supercomputer.

Wrexham and Hull, by contrast, have far tougher tests. Ninth-placed Norwich City’s playoff aspirations are over but there are few sides who wouldn’t fancy their chances given Hull’s recent form: the Tigers are winless in their last six matches. In fact, since they defeated Wrexham back on March 10, Hull have only managed to get the better of rock-bottom Sheffield Wednesday.

The Welsh outfit have endured their own wobble of form, notably getting thumped 5–1 by Southampton before losing to Birmingham City and Coventry earlier this month. They are also up against a Middlesbrough side that can still mathematically secure automatic promotion with a second-place finish. Ipswich Town (second) and Millwall (third) would both have to drop points while Boro triumph in Wrexham, but they will surely be gunning for a win regardless.

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Supercomputer Predicts Wrexham’s Chances of Qualifying for Championship Playoffs

Position	Wrexham	Hull City	Derby County
6th	45.92%	34.28%	19.8%
7th	31.16%	34.18%	34.66%
8th	22.92%	31.54%	45.54%

With all the fine margins at play, there is little to separate the three sides involved. Wrexham are given the best chance of claiming sixth place although Hull are hardly cut adrift as they lie level on points with a marginally inferior goal difference. Derby’s aspirations appear to be less realistic, although hardly out of the question.

Crucially, Wrexham have experience of dramatic finales. As manager Phil Parkinson reflected to Sports Illustrated last weekend: “We’ve had it our way many times on final days of the season.”

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Supercomputer Predicts Final 2025–26 EFL Championship Standings

Ollie Rathbone scored for Wrexham against Coventry last weekend. | Marc Atkins/Getty Images

Predicted Position	Team	Predicted Points
1.	Coventry	93.70
2.	Ipswich	83.04
3.	Millwall	82.03
4.	Middlesbrough	80.22
5.	Southampton	78.57
6.	Wrexham	71.49
7.	Hull	71.47
8.	Derby	70.69
9.	Norwich	66.24
10.	Birmingham	64.17
11.	Swansea	62.79
12.	Preston	61.17
13.	Bristol City	60.73
14.	QPR	58.73
15.	Watford	58.04
16.	Sheff Utd	58.02
17.	Stoke	55.99
18.	Portsmouth	55.54
19.	West Brom	54.65
20.	Charlton	53.95
21.	Blackburn	53.72
22.	Oxford	47.75
23.	Leicester	44.01
24.	Sheff Wed	-1.90

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