Three Bold Predictions for the USMNT at the 2026 World Cup

There are high expectations for Mauricio Pochettino’s side heading into the tournament.

The USMNT face Paraguay in its opening game on Friday. | Cory Knowlton/ISI Photos/ISI Photos/Getty Images

The 2026 World Cup is just days away, and it could feature the most important soccer games ever played by the U.S. men’s national team. 

Since appointing Mauricio Pochettino to lead the World Cup project back in the fall of 2024, every move the Argentine manager has made has been with the tournament in mind. Now that moment has arrived, and the USMNT will look to avoid the massive disappointment that marked the 2024 Copa América, when, as hosts, it crashed out in the group stage. 

Friday sees the USMNT hit the pitch for the first time to take on Paraguay at SoFi Stadium, before it faces Australia in Seattle on June 19 and returns to Los Angeles to battle Türkiye on June 25. 

Here’s Sports Illustrated’s three bold predictions for the USMNT at the World Cup.

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A Lacklustre Opening Atmosphere

Los Angeles’s SoFi Stadium will host two of the USMNT’s first three World Cup matches. | Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images

Ticket sales have been a big topic leading into the World Cup, with exorbitant pricing leaving many who would have wanted to be in attendance for some of soccer’s biggest moments on the sidelines. A report from The Athletic on May 28 stated the USMNT’s opening match against Paraguay was thousands of tickets short of a sellout and while prices have dropped, there were no tickets below $1,000 at the time of publication. 

While there will still be an intense crowd, it is poised to fall short of the passionate atmosphere that took over Soldier Field in Chicago for the USMNT’s 2–1 loss to Germany in its final pre-World Cup friendly. 

Should the fans pack the stadium in a rush of last-minute ticket sales, there could be a large Paraguay contingent as well. In the past, the USMNT has often felt like the away team due to the amount of away support that makes its way to the stadium for games in the Copa América and the Gold Cup. The hope now is that the World Cup is markedly different. 

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Four Points in the Group Stage

The addition of Christian Volpato makes Australia a tougher matchup than expected. | Dave Bernal/ISI Photos/ISI Photos/Getty Images

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The confidence from the USMNT camp and the general vibe around the team leading into the World Cup is sky-high. Yet, there seems to be little regard for the powers that Paraguay, Australia and Türkiye can offer to the group stage — as well as how unconvincing the USMNT has been under pressure under Pochettino. 

As such, the USMNT may only beat Paraguay in the opening game, draw with Australia and lose to Türkiye, advancing as a second-place finisher on four points. 

Australia, ranked 27th in the world, kept a close game in a 2–1 loss to the USMNT in an October friendly and did not play its strongest lineup on that day.  Add in the vast amount of support the Aussies will have from a large community in nearby British Columbia and Alberta, and it could be a tough game for the USMNT. 

Türkiye, meanwhile, ranks 22nd in the world and is battle-tested after qualifying through March’s UEFA playoffs. It features Juventus star Kenan Yıldız and Real Madrid playmaker Arda Güler, both of whom can rival the best qualities the USMNT has to offer. 

It leaves Paraguay — no walkover team in its own right — as the best option for the USMNT to beat. If it doesn’t, things will get worrying incredibly quickly. 

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USMNT Beats Iran Before Argentina Ends the Journey 

Lionel Messi and Argentina could end the USMNT’s World Cup dreams. | Pablo Elias/NurPhoto/Getty Images

If the USMNT finish second in its group, it would set up a likely politically heated matchup with Iran, which is expected to finish second in Group G (also containing Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand.)

The tension surrounding that round of 32 match would be immense, but ultimately the USMNT would push past on the field and qualify for the round of 16, as it did in the 32-team edition of the tournament in Qatar four years ago. 

Once USMNT make the round of 16, a potential matchup with Argentina looms. All Argentina would need to do is win Group J and a round of 32 knockout match to set up the battle with the co-hosts. At that point, the Lionel Messi-led crew would likely be too much for the USMNT to handle, ending the tournament in the round of 16 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

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