What Liverpool Need on Premier League Final Day to Qualify for Champions League

Liverpool’s recent form leaves nerves jangling ahead of the season finale with Brentford.

Dominik Szoboszlai is praying for Liverpool’s Champions League qualification. | Liverpool FC/Getty Images

After collecting just one point from the last nine on offer, Liverpool head into the final day of the season still uncertain of Champions League qualification.

The dethroned Premier League champions have endured several miserable weeks that epitomize a dismal campaign, and they have just one more opportunity to salvage a silver lining.

Currently sat in fifth—enough for a Champions League place this season—Liverpool can at least end their campaign with re-entry into Europe’s premier competition, with their destiny in their own hands ahead of the last day of the season.

However, with Bournemouth on their tail and still technically in the hunt, the race is not yet over.

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How Liverpool Can Secure Champions League on Final Day

Liverpool will want to finish the season with victory. | Liverpool FC/Getty Images

It’s worth noting that while Liverpool could still finish outside the top five, data experts Opta give them a 99.65% chance of qualifying for the Champions League ahead of their season finale at home to Brentford this Sunday.

That percentage is so high because of Erling Haaland’s 95th-minute effort in Tuesday’s 1–1 draw between Bournemouth and Manchester City—a game which confirmed Arsenal as the successors to Liverpool as champions.

Bournemouth’s draw means they are on 56 points ahead of their last game of the season away at Nottingham Forest, trailing Liverpool on 59 points. The Cherries are the only side who can catch the Reds, but they would need a small miracle to do so.

If Liverpool win or draw at home to Brentford on Sunday—a fixture which sees them bid farewell to Mohamed Salah and Andy Robertson—then they will be guaranteed Champions League qualification. Even a loss is unlikely to be fatal.

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Premier League Table Ahead of Season Finale

Position	Team	Goal Difference	Points
5.	Liverpool	+10	59
6.	Bournemouth	+4	56

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With a superior goal difference, Liverpool would have to lose to Brentford, Bournemouth beat Forest and a seven-goal swing to occur to drop out of the top five. For example, if Liverpool lost 3-0 to Brentford and Bournemouth beat Forest 4–0, the Cherries would leapfrog Liverpool.

While that is extremely unlikely, it remains a possibility. An even unlikelier outcome is a possible playoff for fifth spot.

A 1–0 defeat for Liverpool and 5–0 win for Bournemouth on Sunday could lead to an extraordinary one-leg playoff for fifth place. That’s because the clubs would have the same points, goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head record and away goals scored in head-to-head matches across the season.

The chances of that eventuality becoming reality are infinitesimally slim, however, and it's most likely that Liverpool will have just enough in the tank to fend off Bournemouth and secure Champions League football for another year.

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