What the USMNT Needs From Turkiye vs. Paraguay to Win Group D

Two results on Friday night will guarantee the Stars and Stripes finish atop Group D.

The USMNT got its World Cup campaign off to a dream start. | Sebastian Frej/Getty Images

The U.S. men’s national team already secured its place in the last 32 at the 2026 World Cup, but it can also officially win Group D on Friday with a little help from Paraguay.

The Stars and Stripes originally came into this summer’s showpiece event expected to place second in their group, behind the favorite Türkiye. Yet Mauricio Pochettino’s men currently sit atop the standings with six points after two dominant wins against Paraguay and Australia to kick of their campaign on home soil.

Türkiye, meanwhile, has zero points to its name after suffering a surprise 2–0 defeat to the Socceroos in its World Cup opener. Arda Güler and Co. have a chance to bounce back and record their first win when they take on Paraguay on Friday night in Santa Clara, but no one will be rooting for them to fail more than the USMNT.

After all, there’s a reality in which the host nation can already secure first place of Group D before it even has to face off with Türkiye on Thursday, June 25.

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Group D Standings

The USMNT is now the favorite to win Group D. | Jared C. Tilton/FIFA/Getty Images

Standing	Team	PL	GD	PTS
1	USMNT	2	+5	6
2	Australia	2	0	3
3	Türkiye	1	-2	0
4	Paraguay	1	-3	0

*Türkiye and Paraguay kick off on Friday at 11 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. PT.

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How the USMNT Can Win Group D on Friday

The USMNT could clinch first place before it faces off with Türkiye. | John Dorton/USSF/Getty Images

The Stars and Stripes already did their job in Seattle. An own goal from Australia center back Cameron Burgess, created by Folarin Balogun, and a well-timed header from Alex Freeman powered Pochettino’s side to a 2–0 win over the Socceroos.

Now, the USMNT needs Paraguay to step up against Türkiye. As long as La Albirroja do not lose under the lights at Levi’s Stadium, the host nation will officially win the group.

If Paraguay wins, then Türkiye is stuck on zero points and therefore cannot catch up to the USMNT. Even the game ends in a draw, Türkiye will only have one point heading into the group stage finale next week. A win over the Stars and Stripes would still only give Vincenzo Montella’s men four points at best, and therefore they would have no chance of finishing first.

Should Paraguay come through for the USMNT, then it could finish the group with six points if it goes on to also defeat Australia next week. The Stars and Stripes could also be stuck on six points with a defeat to Türkiye, but they have the head-to-head win thanks to their 4–1 demolition of Paraguay last week.

The same goes for Australia should it upend Paraguay in its final group stage match to collect six points. The USMNT’s 2–0 win gives the Americans the edge.

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What Happens If Türkiye Defeats Paraguay?

The pressure is on Arda Güler to will Türkiye to victory on Friday. | Hakan Akgun/Anadolu/Getty Images

If Türkiye comes away with three points against Paraguay, then the winner of Group D will not be decided until next week. Montella’s men could go on to defeat the USMNT and end the group stage with six points.

Türkiye and the U.S. would then be level on six points, but the former would have the head-to-head edge.

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