What Would a Successful Run at the 2026 World Cup Look Like for the USMNT?

The USMNT dreams of hoisting the World Cup this summer, however unrealistic that may be.

The USMNT has big dreams for this World Cup. | Robin Alam/ISI Photos/Getty Images

The pressure on the U.S. men’s national team has never been higher. Welcoming the men’s FIFA World Cup to U.S. soil for the second time ever—co-hosting the 2026 edition with Canada and Mexico, there are expectations that the team makes a significant run in the tournament. 

With home-field advantage, a roster of players set to play in the top divisions of their respective domestic leagues next season and a pedigreed manager at the helm in Mauricio Pochettino, there is a strong belief that the Americans can go farther than ever before. 

Pochettino himself even questioned, “Why not us?” when considering the road to victory ahead. While winning the entire World Cup remains incredibly unlikely, it stands as the goal for every team at the tournament—and the USMNT genuinely believes it can compete with the world’s elite.

The USMNT’s group stage kicks off on Friday against Paraguay in Los Angeles, before the team travels to Seattle to face Australia. The Stars and Stripes wrap up Group D action back in Los Angeles against Türkiye. It isn’t the easiest group, but it's not particularly challenging, either. 

Here, Sports Illustrated takes a look at what stage of the World Cup the USMNT must reach this summer for its campaign to be deemed a success. 

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Failure—Group Stage Exit

Falling out of the World Cup group stage would be a failure for the USMNT. | Johnnie Izquierdo/USSF/Getty Images

If the USMNT crashes out in the group stage, as it did at the 2024 Copa América, it would be an abject failure. Some players would likely see the end of their national team careers, and Pochettino would be remembered as one of the most significant coaching failures in national team history. 

As much as missing the 2018 World Cup in Russia outright was bad, it flipped the switch onto a new generation and away from the core of Michael Bradley, Jozy Altidore and Clint Dempsey. A group-stage exit at a home World Cup might be an even bigger scandal, given the international spotlight it would take place under. 

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Missed Opportunity—Advance as No. 2 or No. 3, Lose in Round of 32

Christian Pulisic leads the way for the United States. | Omar Vega/USSF/Getty Images

Winning Group D will be the key focus for the USMNT, but the team can still advance by finishing second, or even with a strong performance and a third-place finish, with the best eight third-place teams advancing to the round of 32. 

A second- or third- place finish in the group stage, likely requiring one or two disappointing results in match play, would draw mixed reviews from supporters. While advancing to the knockout stages is obviously positive, the team would be forced to face a much stronger team in the first knockout phase. Losing to said powerhouse would feel more like a missed opportunity rather than an outright failure of the program. 

The round of 32 is a new addition to the tournament this year, as the field has expanded to 48 teams, but the USMNT has not won a knockout game at the World Cup since the 2002 tournament in Japan and South Korea. 

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Shock and Disappointment—Win Group D, Lose in Round of 32

Mauricio Pochettino’s USMNT would be stunned with a Round of 32 exit after winning the group. | Jamie Squire/Getty Images

If the USMNT comes out on top in Group D, it would set up a round of 32 match against one of the third-place finishers in Group B, E, F, I or J, potentially meaning a co-host clash with Canada, a team conceivable poised to finish third in Group B. 

Winning the group stage against testing opponents like Australia and Türkiye would build massive belief and hype around the USMNT. Still, a loss to a less in-form team in the subsequent round of 32 would feel like a punch to the gut and a disappointment after weeks of promise.

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Expectation—Win or No. 2 in Group D, Lose in Round of 16

Antonee Robinson is likely a ky player for the USMNT this summer. | Michael Miller/ISI Photos/Getty Images

The USMNT has advanced to the World Cup quarterfinals only once, back in 2002. Making it to the round of 16 has become the standard for the program, and they reached that stage in the 32-team tournament in Qatar four years ago before being eliminated by the Netherlands. 

If the Americans are to win or finish second in Group D and win a round of 32 knockout match, then they will have matched expectations for the growing program. The wins will have shown the vigor to find success in tough moments, but the team could then realistically come up unlucky against a truly elite side in the second knockout phase.

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Success—Eliminated in Quarterfinals or Beyond

Christian Pulisic would become an even larger USMNT legend if he leads the team past the round of 16. | Omar Vega/USSF/Getty Images

If the USMNT bows out to an elite side in the quarterfinals of the World Cup, the team will have given its fans four weeks of immense excitement and promise, while building bona fide momentum with a pair of knockout stage wins and likely a strong performance in the group stage. 

While a quarterfinal finish would mark one of the best USMNT performances at a World Cup, anything beyond that would be the stuff of dreams. How does the USMNT in a semifinal, final or even lifting the World Cup sound? That would all be pretty good, but simply making the quarterfinals would deem the USMNT’s campaign a massive success. 

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