Over the course of 2020 and into 2021, our Senior Gambling Analyst and Vegas Insider - Frankie Taddeo - has shared his horse racing handicapping formula which has correctly predicted the following winners at SI Gambling:
- Travers Stakes - Exacta (8/1), Trifecta (36/1)
- Blue Grass Stakes - Exacta (12/1), Trifecta (60/1) and Superfecta (443/1)
- Frizette Stakes - Exacta Cold
- Desi Arnaz Stakes - Exacta (31/1)
- Ontario Derby - Trifecta (72/1)
- Tropical Turf Stakes - Trifecta (37/1) - 2021*
On Saturday, SI Gambling’s “Race of the Week” takes us to action from Santa Anita. Among the eight races on the card is the $100,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes which has drawn a field of eight. The prestigious race is a Kentucky Derby prep race with the winner receiving 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. The second place finisher will be awarded four points, with third place grabbing two points and the fourth place finisher one point in the standings.
The morning-line favorite is Bob Baffert’s Medina Spirit (5/2), a colt who is highly regarded on the Kentucky Derby trail. The son of Protonico was impressive last out in his runner-up finish to the highly regarded Life is Good in the Sham Stakes (Grade 3) on January 2 at Santa Anita. The hype around this horse is real and the eyes of the horse racing world will be watching.
Hot Rod Charlie (3/1), a son of Oxbow for trainer Doug O'Neill, checks in as the second overall betting choice and will be looking to hit the board for the fourth time in five career races. He will be coming off a long layoff last posting a runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Who will cross the finish line first? Let’s take a look at the odds and dive deeper.
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3)
Racetrack: Santa Anita, California
Date: Saturday, January 30, 2021
Distance: 1 1/16 M, Dirt
Post Time: 6:37 pm EST / 3:37 pm PST
HORSES OF NOTE: Listed by post number, name, and odds
#1 Medina Spirit (5/2) - The formula lands on this one of the two Baffert entries who will look to further fuel the hype that he is among the top contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby. Pick
#4 Hot Rod Charlie (3/1) - Coming off a long layoff - last seen posting a runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November and he fits in this field . The formula ranks this colt for Doug O'Neill as the biggest threat to Medina Spirit. Contender
#8 Spielberg (7/2) - Baffert’s ‘other’ hyped horse who I will try to beat at likely short odds. Use protectively on the bottom of exotics. Threat
#7 Wipe the Slate (4/1) - This son of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist is trainer Doug O’Neill’s other entry who needs to be included on all tickets. Top Longshot
Robert B. Lewis Formula Rankings
- #1 Medina Spirit
- #4 Hot Rod Charlie
- #8 Spielberg
- #7 Wipe the Slate
- #5 Roman Centurian
- #2 Rombauer
- #3 Parnelli
- #6 Waspirant
Pegasus World Cup Invitational Breakdown
Frankie Taddeo, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Vegas Insider (@Frankie_Fantasy)
According to the formula, this race should be dominated by Medina Spirit. Although the price could be short, he is a clear SINGLE in all multi race exotic plays. I will use #1 Medina Spirit (1/1) over #4 Hot Rod Charlie (3/1) #8 Spielberg (7/2 and #7 Wipe the Slate (4/1). I will add #5 Roman Centurian (8/1) on the bottom to round out the spread trifecta.
Exacta BOX: 1-4-7-8
$1 wager: $12
TOP Trifecta Part-Wheel: 1 with 4,7,8 with 4,7,8
$1 wager: $6
SPREAD Trifecta Part-Wheel: 1 with 4,5,7,8, with 4,5,7,8
$1 wager: $12
All wagers display ticket cost. All bettors should adjust wager amounts based upon bankroll