NBA Odds, Spread, Over/Under and Props: Nuggets-Celtics

Spread, over/under and prop bets for Friday night’s game between the Nuggets and favored Celtics in Boston.

Author:
Kyle Wood
Publish date:
Nov 11, 2022

In this story:

Denver Nuggets

Boston Celtics

The Nuggets and Celtics, two of the NBA’s top teams, face off in Boston on Friday for the first time this season.

Denver hasn’t beaten Boston since 2019 and is an underdog on the road in this matchup, a sign from the oddsmakers that the C’s winning streak in this series might continue. After somewhat slow starts, both teams have rattled off a few victories in a row to gain some steam heading into this matchup, which features back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic and Jayson Tatum, who’s been one of the league’s top scorers in the early part of the season.

Below is the betting breakdown of Nuggets-Celtics in what we like to call the “SO/UP” format. That means there’s against the spread, over/under and prop bet picks.

Bet on Nuggets-Celtics at SI Sportsbook

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum — Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports

Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics

Time: 7 p.m. ET
Spread: Nuggets +4.5 (-110) | Celtics -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Nuggets (+155) | Celtics (-188)
Total: 233.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Nuggets Betting Profile

Straight Up Record: 8-3
Against the Spread Record: 5-6
Over/Under Record: 6-5
Points Per Game (Rank): 116.7 (6)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 114.4 (20)

Celtics Betting Profile

Straight Up Record: 8-3
Against the Spread Record: 5-6
Over/Under Record: 7-4
Points Per Game (Rank): 118.7 (2)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 114.2 (19)

Spread Bet: Celtics -4.5 (-110)

Denver and Boston both carry four-game winning streaks into a Friday night bout at the TD Garden. The Celtics, who have a 4-1 mark at home this season, have also won the last five games between these teams. The Nuggets are 2-0 on their current road trip but are just 4-3 outside of Colorado this season. The only injury news that could affect the matchup is that Boston guard Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) has been ruled out, which puts a strain on the team’s depth and puts more pressure on Marcus Smart.

Neither team is playing up to its 2021-22 defensive levels, but the C’s have made up for that with a sizable leap in offensive production. Tatum has led that charge—he’s averaging what would be a career-high 31.2 PPG and Boston’s 15.8 made threes per game leads the NBA. Denver defends the three at about a league average rate and has given up some big spots to opposing offenses already. Even without Robert Williams III to guard Jokic, I like the Celtics to notch another win at home. The duo of Tatum and Jaylen Brown and the three-point barrage will be too much to overcome.

Over/Under Bet: Under 233.5 (-110)

Both Denver and Boston’s games have gone over more often than not so far this season. However, the Celtics have only had a point total set above 230 once. That game came against the Grizzlies, another high-scoring team, and the total ended up falling well short. And only one of the three Nuggets games with point totals of 230 or more actually hit the over, though the one that did was their most recent game against the Pacers.

Ultimately, this figure is just a bit high for me, even for as much as I believe in what both offenses are capable of. They can still both have solid outings within the range of their lofty scoring averages and fall short of this total, so I’m going with the under.

Prop Bet: Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 Threes Made (-143)

Porter Jr. has hit this prop in his last nine games. The only game he failed to go over was the season opener, his first game back after a long injury hiatus, and even in that game he connected on two deep balls. The marksman shoots 48.6% of his 7.4 attempts per game for an average of 3.6 made threes per game. That explains why there’s heavier odds on the over, but this line is also one entire three below his season average. Few players for Boston are equipped to defend the 6’10” Porter on the perimeter and affect his shot and he’ll hoist from deep with ease.