2023 National League MVP Future Odds: Juan Soto Tops a Wide-Open Field
Juan Soto at +550 is the betting favorite at SI Sportsbook for NL MVP this season.
In a field that feels pretty wide open, Soto has emerged as the betting favorite at +550, despite the fact that his stats for 2022 are a long way from MVP caliber. Soto, who began the seasonin Washington before being traded to the Padres, batted a mere .240 over 153 games, logging 27 home runs. Once in San Diego, he also saw his slugging percentage decrease to a career-low .390. Do I think Soto will bounce back? Yes. But I would rather bet on him for Comeback Player of the Year than MVP.
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Mookie Betts has the next-best odds at +900 after slugging a career-high 35 home runs in 2022. He also bats atop one of the best lineups in baseball, but I might pivot to teammate Freddie Freeman here for the bigger payout at +1300. Freeman has won the MVP previously, and though his home run total dropped a bit in 2022, he still has elite plate discipline.
All eyes will be on Soto’s young Padres teammate, Fernando Tatis Jr., who will likely return from his PED suspension mid-April. He has the disadvantage of not being able to play a full 162 games, but he has the advantage of being one of the most innately talented players on the field. The power/speed combo of Tatis will be hard to top if he returns at full form.
The reigning MVP, Paul Goldschmidt, is +1000 to repeat in 2023. Goldschmidt surprised everyone with his standout season in St. Louis, but he’s 35 years old entering this season.
- SEE ALSO: AL MVP Future Odds
Ronald Acuna Jr. at +1000 looks like outstanding value heading into his first full season following his ACL tear in 2021. In his 119 games working back from the injury in 2022, the 25-year-old outfielder stole 28 bases and swatted 15 home runs. He hits atop a Braves lineup expected to be among the best in baseball, and I like this value.
Pete Alonso (+1400), Manny Machado (+1200) and Austin Riley (+1600) all represent good value, but Matt Olson (+2500) and Kyle Schwarber (+4000) stand out as the biggest values.
Both Olson and Schwarber have the raw power and hitting ability that could suddenly go to another level with the new bans on the shift. Defenses put the shift on Schwarber 90.5% of the time in 2022 and he still hit a massive 46 home runs with an average exit velocity in the 99th percentile of the league. Olson was shifted on 81.3% of the time and logged 34 homers and 103 RBI. Both players should see their batting averages improve, and both players play for teams that are expected to be competitive.
Here are the current odds for NL MVP at SI Sportsbook:
Juan Soto +550
Mookie Betts +900
Fernando Tatis Jr. +1000
Paul Goldscmidt +1000
Ronald Acuna Jr. +1000
Manny Machado +1200
Trea Turner +1200
Nolan Arenado +1200
Freddie Freeman +1300
Pete Alonso +1400
Austin Riley +1600
Matt Olson +2500
Francisco Lindor +2500
Xander Bogaerts +3000
Kyle Schwarber +4000
Michael Harris II +5000
Jazz Chisolm +6600
Bryce Harper +6600
Sandy Alcantara +6600
Ozzie Albies +6600
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